PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300PM EDT SUNDAY OCT 31 2010

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2010

LA NINA CONDITIONS STRENGTHENED DURING LATE SEPTEMBER AND EARLY OCTOBER. FOR 
THIS TIME OF YEAR THE OBSERVED ENSO INDICES ARE CLOSE TO A RECORD. EVENTS 
TYPICALLY PEAK IN ABOUT DECEMBER, OR THE NDJ SEASONAL MEAN. INDEED FORECASTS BY 
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL STRENGTHEN 
FURTHER AND LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2010-11, AND 
VERY LIKELY INTO THE SPRING.

THE NOVEMBER 2010 MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS INCORPORATE 
INFORMATION FROM THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) COUPLED 
OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL, IN COMBINATION WITH FORECASTS FROM 
STATISTICAL TOOLS.  THE LATTER INCLUDES: THE CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS 
(CCA), SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS 
(OCN), OR TREND, AND CONSTRUCTED ANALOG SOIL MOISTURE-BASED FORECASTS (CAS).   
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS INCLUDE RECENTLY OBSERVED NEAR-COASTAL SSTS, AND THE 
CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE WHICH MATCHES RECENTLY OBSERVED TO HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS 
OF GLOBAL SST (CA-SST). FINALLY, ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT FORECAST TOOLS USED 
DURING EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS, INCLUDING THIS FORECAST, ARE MAPS OF THE 
TYPICAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WHICH OCCURRED DURING AN AVERAGE 
OF PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS, CALLED ENSO COMPOSITES, FOR 
THE OND SEASON. MANY OF THESE TOOLS ARE IN AGREEMENT, OR AT LEAST NOT IN 
DISAGREEMENT.

THE HALF MONTH LEAD TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER CALLS FOR ENHANCED CHANCES 
OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN A SW-NE ORIENTED BROAD AREA FROM TEXAS AND NEW 
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
ALASKA. ELSEWHERE EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES 
ARE PREDICTED. 

THE HALF MONTH LEAD PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER CALLS FOR ENHANCED 
CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO IDAHO AND 
MONTANA. ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE PREDICTED ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48, FROM SOUTHERN CA TO FLORIDA, GEORGIA 
AND SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, AND 
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE PREDICTED.

ABOUT THE END OF THE MONTH UPDATE. 

ONE OF THE ELEMENTS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WOULD BE NEAR CERTAIN HEAVY PRECIP ON 
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST MONTH. AT THIS TIME NONE IS INDICATED BY NWP 
MODELS EXCEPT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE WE ALREADY HAD A FORECAST FOR 
ABOVE MEDIAN. SOME EAST COAST RAINS ARE INDICATED IN THE FIRST WEEK BUT QUITE 
CHANGEABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. THEREFORE NO CHANGE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY NWP IS MILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH 
SLIGHTLY COLD IN THE EAST IN THE FIRST WEEK AND SLIGHTLY COLD IN THE WEST IN 
THE 2ND WEEK. THIS WOULD BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG LEAD FORECAST. THEREFORE 
NO CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EITHER.


FORECASTER: HUUG VAN DEN DOOL


NOTES: AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL 
PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED AS EC (EQUAL CHANCES).


THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR DEC ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU NOV 18 2010


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.

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