PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EDT THU SEP 16 2010 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OCTOBER 2010 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE 0.5 DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2010 THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 10.84 INCHES (47 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 4.41 INCHES (43 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 4.06 INCHES (33 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 34.23 INCHES (42 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP TOOLS PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR OCTOBER 2010. NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FOR OCTOBER 2010. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 75.8 0.5 B40 8.1 9.6 10.5 KAHULUI B40 78.3 0.5 B40 0.4 0.6 1.0 HONOLULU B40 80.0 0.5 B40 0.3 1.4 1.9 LIHUE B40 78.1 0.4 B40 2.0 3.2 4.3 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OND 2010 - OND 2011 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SST ANOMALIES IN ALL NINO REGIONS COOLED TO BETWEEN -1.3 AND -1.8 DEGREE C BY THE END OF AUGUST. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE DOMINATED THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA - WHILE REMAINING SUPPRESSED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. NEARLY ALL MODELS PREDICT LA NINA TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY 2011. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2010-11. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF COLD EPISODES - WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FOR OND 2010, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM JFM TO MAM 2011. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FOR OND 2010, AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS FORECAST FROM DJF TO MAM 2011 BASED ON THE EL NINO COMPOSITE AND NCEP FORECAST TOOLS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2010 B40 74.2 0.4 B40 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2010 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2011 EC 72.0 0.4 A40 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2011 A40 71.8 0.4 A40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2011 A40 72.1 0.4 A40 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2011 A40 72.8 0.5 A40 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2011 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2011 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2011 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2011 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2011 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2011 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2011 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2010 B40 75.9 0.5 B40 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2011 EC 72.5 0.5 A40 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2011 A40 72.4 0.5 A40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2011 A40 73.2 0.5 A40 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2011 A40 74.4 0.6 A40 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2011 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2011 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2011 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2011 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2011 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2011 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2011 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2010 B40 77.3 0.5 B40 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2011 EC 73.5 0.4 A40 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2011 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2011 A40 74.5 0.4 A40 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2011 A40 76.0 0.4 A40 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2011 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2011 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2011 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2011 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2011 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2011 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2011 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2010 B40 75.6 0.3 B40 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2010 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2011 EC 72.4 0.4 A40 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2011 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2011 A40 73.1 0.4 A40 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2011 A40 74.4 0.4 A40 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2011 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2011 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2011 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2011 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2011 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2011 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2011 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN\ CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU OCT 21, 2010. $$