PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AUGUST 2010 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE 0.5 DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2010 THROUGH THE END OF JUNE - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 8.40 INCHES (44 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 3.89 INCHES (42 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 3.91 INCHES (35 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 25.94 INCHES (43 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP TOOLS PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR AUGUST 2010. NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FOR AUGUST 2010. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 76.5 0.4 B40 7.0 8.4 9.4 KAHULUI B40 79.6 0.5 B40 0.3 0.5 0.6 HONOLULU B40 81.6 0.5 B40 0.1 0.2 0.3 LIHUE B40 79.6 0.4 B40 1.3 1.6 2.0 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID ASO 2010 - ASO 2011 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SUBSURFACE HEAT CONTENT ALSO REMAINED BELOW-AVERAGE DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE AND INTO EARLY JULY. SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BECAME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND EXTENDED TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. ENHANCED CONVECTION PERSISTED OVER INDONESIA, WHILE THE AREA OF SUPPRESSED CONVECTION STRENGTHENED AND EXPANDED WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUED COOLING OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC SSTS DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING JUNE-AUGUST AND TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY 2011. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM ASO TO SON 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM ASO TO SON 2010, AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS FORECAST FROM DJF TO JFM 2011 BASED ON NCEP FORECAST TOOLS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2010 B40 76.2 0.4 B40 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2010 B40 75.5 0.4 B40 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2010 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2010 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2011 EC 72.0 0.4 A40 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2011 EC 71.8 0.4 A40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2011 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2011 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2011 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2011 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2011 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2011 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2011 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2010 B40 78.9 0.5 B40 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2010 B40 77.8 0.5 B40 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2010 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2011 EC 72.5 0.5 A40 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2011 EC 72.4 0.5 A40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2011 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2011 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2011 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2011 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2011 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2011 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2011 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2010 B40 81.0 0.5 B40 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2010 B40 79.6 0.5 B40 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2010 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2011 EC 73.5 0.4 A40 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2011 EC 73.5 0.4 A40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2011 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2011 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2011 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2011 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2011 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2011 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2011 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2010 B40 79.0 0.3 B40 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2010 B40 77.7 0.3 B40 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2010 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2010 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2011 EC 72.4 0.4 A40 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2011 EC 72.4 0.4 A40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2011 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2011 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2011 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2011 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2011 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2011 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2011 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN\ CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU AUG 19, 2010. $$