PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EDT THU MAY 20 2010 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR JUNE 2010 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE 0.5 DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2010 THROUGH THE END OF APRIL - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 5.08 INCHES (35 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 2.25 INCHES (28 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 3.78 INCHES (37 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 17.97 INCHES (39 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP TOOLS PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR JUNE 2010. NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FOR JUNE 2010. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 75.3 0.4 B40 4.4 5.2 9.1 KAHULUI B40 77.7 0.7 B40 0.1 0.1 0.2 HONOLULU B40 79.7 0.5 B40 0.1 0.2 0.3 LIHUE B40 77.8 0.4 B40 0.9 1.3 1.9 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR JJA 2010 TO JJA 2011 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO WEAKENED AS POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC WHERE ANOMALIES HAVE RECENTLY BECOME NEGATIVE. SUBSURFACE HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES HAVE ALSO DECREASED STEADILY. RECENTLY - BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE EXTENDED TO THE SURFACE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. ENHANCED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER INDONESIA, WHILE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION STRENGTHENED AND EXPANDED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC - JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - WHILE WEAK WESTERLY ANOMALIES PERSISTED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. NEARLY ALL MODELS PREDICT DECREASING SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO-3.4 REGION THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2010. ALTHOUGH MANY MODELS PREDICT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS, THERE IS A GROWING POSSIBILITY OF LA NINA DEVELOPING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 2010. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM JJA TO SON 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM JJA TO JAS 2010 BASED ON NCEP FORECAST TOOLS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2010 B40 75.9 0.4 B40 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2010 B40 76.3 0.4 B40 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2010 B40 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2010 B40 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2010 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2010 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2010 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2011 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2011 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2011 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2011 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2011 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2011 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2010 B40 78.6 0.5 B40 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2010 B40 79.1 0.5 B40 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2010 B40 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2010 B40 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2010 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2010 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2011 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2011 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2011 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2011 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2011 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2011 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2010 B40 80.7 0.4 B40 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2010 B40 81.2 0.4 B40 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2010 B40 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2010 B40 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2010 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2010 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2011 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2011 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2011 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2011 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2011 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2011 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2010 B40 78.8 0.3 B40 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2010 B40 79.3 0.3 B40 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2010 B40 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2010 B40 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2010 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2010 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2010 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2011 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2011 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2011 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2011 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2011 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2011 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUN 17, 2010 $$