PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EDT THU MAR 18 2010 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR APRIL 2010 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE 0.5 DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2010 THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 2.00 INCHES (25 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 1.38 INCHES (27 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 1.61 INCHES (26 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 2.32 INCHES (12 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP TOOLS PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR APRIL 2010. NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR APRIL 2010. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 72.6 0.5 B40 7.6 10.3 11.0 KAHULUI B40 74.3 0.6 B40 0.5 1.0 1.3 HONOLULU B40 76.0 0.5 B40 0.5 0.7 1.0 LIHUE B40 74.1 0.5 B40 1.6 2.7 3.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR AMJ 2010 TO AMJ 2011 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE PACIFIC OCEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SUB-SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH AN EL NIŅO EVENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 1.0ēC ABOVE-AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. AN OCEANIC KELVIN WAVE WAS INITIATED IN EARLY FEBRUARY, WHICH ACTED TO INCREASE THE SUBSURFACE HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES - AND TO STRENGTHEN SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES (EXCEEDING +2°C DOWN TO 100-175M) ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC - WHILE REMAINING SUPPRESSED OVER INDONESIA. MOST MODELS PREDICT DECREASING SST ANOMALIES IN THE NIŅO-3.4 REGION THROUGH 2010. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS PREDICT THE 3-MONTH NIŅO-3.4 SST ANOMALY WILL DROP BELOW +0.5°C BY MAY-JUNE-JULY 2010. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT TWO SEASONS. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR AMJ 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM AMJ TO MJJ 2010 BASED ON THE EL NINO COMPOSITE AND NCEP FORECAST TOOLS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2010 B40 73.9 0.4 B40 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2010 EC 75.0 0.4 B40 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2010 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2010 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2010 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2010 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2010 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2010 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2010 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2011 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2011 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2011 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2011 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2010 B40 75.8 0.6 B40 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2010 EC 77.3 0.6 B40 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2010 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2010 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2010 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2010 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2010 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2010 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2011 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2011 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2011 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2011 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2010 B40 77.7 0.4 B40 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2010 EC 79.3 0.4 B40 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2010 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2010 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2010 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2010 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2010 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2010 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2011 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2011 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2011 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2011 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2010 B40 75.9 0.4 B40 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2010 EC 77.5 0.4 B40 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2010 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2010 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2010 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2010 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2010 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2010 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2010 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2011 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2011 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2011 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2011 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU APR 15, 2010 $$