PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EST THU FEB 18 2010 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR MARCH 2010 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE 0.5 DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2010 - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 1.10 INCHES (24 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.71 INCHES (26 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 0.99 INCHES (27 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 0.94 INCHES (10 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP TOOLS PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR MARCH 2010. NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR KAHULUI - HONOLULU - LIHUE FOR MARCH 2010. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 72.1 0.6 B40 5.7 12.1 15.4 KAHULUI B40 73.2 0.6 B40 1.4 2.0 2.9 HONOLULU B40 74.5 0.5 B40 0.7 1.2 2.5 LIHUE B40 72.9 0.5 B40 1.5 2.5 3.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR MAM 2010 TO MAM 2011 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL - WITH SIGNIFICANT AREAS EAST OF THE DATE-LINE CONTINUING TO BE MORE THAN 2C ABOVE NORMAL. THE MOST RECENT PERIOD OF SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF ABOVE-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC REMAINED ENHANCED. NEARLY ALL MODELS PREDICT DECREASING SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION THROUGH 2010. HALF OF THE MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2010. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT TWO SEASONS. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR MAM 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM MAM TO AMJ 2010 BASED ON THE EL NINO COMPOSITE AND NCEP FORECST TOOLS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2010 EC 72.8 0.5 B40 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2010 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2010 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2010 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2010 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2010 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2010 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2010 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2010 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2010 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2011 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2011 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2011 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2010 B40 74.4 0.6 B40 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2010 EC 75.8 0.6 B40 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2010 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2010 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2010 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2010 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2010 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2010 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2010 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2011 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2011 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2011 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2010 B40 76.0 0.4 B40 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2010 EC 77.7 0.4 B40 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2010 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2010 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2010 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2010 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2010 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2010 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2010 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2011 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2011 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2011 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2010 B40 74.4 0.4 B40 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2010 EC 75.9 0.4 B40 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2010 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2010 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2010 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2010 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2010 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2010 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2010 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2010 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2011 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2011 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2011 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU MAR 18, 2010 $$