PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EST THU NOV 19 2009 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR DECEMBER 2009 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE 0.5 DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 20.29 INCHES (67 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 9.25 INCHES (70 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.78 INCHES (71 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 96.66 INCHES (96 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP TOOLS PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR DECEMBER 2009. NCEP MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE FOR DECEMBER 2009. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 72.4 0.5 B40 5.8 8.3 12.0 KAHULUI EC 73.6 0.5 B40 1.3 2.3 2.9 HONOLULU EC 74.5 0.7 B40 1.1 1.5 2.9 LIHUE B40 73.2 0.5 B40 2.2 3.6 4.7 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR DJF 2009 TO DJF 2010 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SINCE OCTOBER 2009 - SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE AT LEAST 1 DEGREE C ABOVE-AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES ALSO INCREASED DURING THE MONTH. THE MOST RECENT PERIOD OF SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES SHOW A CONTINUED EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC NEAR 50 -150M DEPTH. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY AND UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES STRENGTHENED OVER MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CONVECTION ALSO REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH EL NIŅO - WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT WILL LAST THROUGH MARCH-MAY 2010. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM DJF TO MAM 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM DJF TO MAM 2010 BASED ON THE EL NINO COMPOSITE AND NCEP FORECST TOOLS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2009 EC 72.0 0.4 B40 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2010 B40 71.8 0.4 B40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2010 B40 72.1 0.4 B40 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2010 B40 72.8 0.5 B40 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2010 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2010 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2010 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2010 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2010 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2010 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2010 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2010 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2010 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2009 B40 72.5 0.5 B40 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2010 B40 72.4 0.5 B40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2010 B40 73.2 0.5 B40 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2010 B40 74.4 0.6 B40 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2010 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2010 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2010 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2010 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2010 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2010 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2010 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2010 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2009 B40 73.5 0.4 B40 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2010 B40 73.5 0.4 B40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2010 B40 74.5 0.4 B40 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2010 B40 76.0 0.4 B40 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2010 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2010 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2010 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2010 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2010 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2010 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2010 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2010 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2009 B40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2010 B40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2010 B40 73.1 0.4 B40 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2010 B40 74.4 0.4 B40 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2010 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2010 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2010 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2010 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2010 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2010 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2010 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2010 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2010 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU DEC 17, 2009 $$