PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCTOBER 2007 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND POSITIVE ONE HALF DEGREE C ON NORTH WEST TO NEGATIVE ONE HALF DEGREE C ON SOUTH EAST. FOR JANUARY 2007 THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: -LIHUE AIRPORT 12.04 INCHES (52 PERCENT OF NORMAL) -HONOLULU AIRPORT 2.80 INCHES (27 PERCENT OF NORMAL) -KAHULUI AIRPORT 4.15 INCHES (34 PERCENT OF NORMAL) -HILO AIRPORT 61.83 INCHES (76 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE FOR SEPTEMBER 2007. ALL TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR SEPTEMBER 2007. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 75.8 0.5 EC 8.1 9.6 10.5 KAHULUI EC 78.3 0.5 EC 0.4 0.6 1.0 HONOLULU EC 80.0 0.5 EC 0.3 1.4 1.9 LIHUE A40 78.1 0.4 EC 2.0 3.2 4.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OND 2007 - OND 2008 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. LA NIŅA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. SST ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND REMAIN POSITIVE IN THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC CONTINUED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE. THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS REMAINED STRONGER THAN AVERAGE IN THE WEST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - CONVECTION WAS SUPPRESSED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND OBSERVED OCEANIC TRENDS INDICATE THAT LA NIŅA CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF COLD EPISODES, WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER. NCEP CFS PREDICTS A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO FOR JFM TO MAM 2008 - ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR KAHULUI FROM NDJ 2007 TO MAM 2008 - ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HONOLULU AND LIHUE FROM OND 2007 TO MAM 2008. NCEP CFS PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM DJF TO FMA 2008. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2007 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2007 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2008 EC 72.0 0.4 A40 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2008 A40 71.8 0.4 A40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2008 A40 72.1 0.4 A40 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2008 A40 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2008 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2008 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2008 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2008 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2008 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2008 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2008 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2007 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2007 A40 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 A40 72.5 0.5 A40 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2008 A40 72.4 0.5 A40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2008 A40 73.2 0.5 A40 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2008 A40 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2008 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2008 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2008 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2008 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2008 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2008 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2008 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2007 A40 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2007 A40 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2008 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2008 A40 74.5 0.4 A40 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2008 A40 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2008 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2008 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2008 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2008 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2008 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2008 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2008 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2007 A40 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2007 A40 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2008 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2008 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2008 A40 73.1 0.4 A40 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2008 A40 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2008 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2008 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2008 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2008 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2008 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2008 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2008 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU OCT 18 2007 $$