PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEPTEMBER 2007 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2007 THROUGH THE END OF JULY-RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: -LIHUE AIRPORT 11.60 INCHES (54 PERCENT OF NORMAL) -HONOLULU AIRPORT 2.71 INCHES (28 PERCENT OF NORMAL) -KAHULUI AIRPORT 4.02 INCHES (34 PERCENT OF NORMAL) -HILO AIRPORT 54.06 INCHES (75 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS AND OCN CALL FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR SEPTEMBER 2007. NCEP CFS PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO AND KAHULUI FOR SEPTEMBER 2007. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 76.4 0.5 B40 5.4 8.7 9.9 KAHULUI B40 79.2 0.6 B40 0.1 0.2 0.3 HONOLULU EC 81.4 0.5 B40 0.4 0.5 0.9 LIHUE EC 79.4 0.3 B40 1.4 1.8 2.0 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SON 2007 - SON 2008 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENSO-NEUTRAL STATE-BUT RECENT ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND TROPICAL CONVECTION PATTERNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION TOWARD LA NIŅA. SST ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME MORE NEGATIVE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC-AND REMAIN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE IN THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS REMAINED STRONGER THAN AVERAGE IN THE WEST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC REMAINED BELOW-AVERAGE. SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE TRANSITION TO LA NIŅA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS-WHILE MOST STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. RECENT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF LA NINA DEVELOPING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. NCEP CFS PREDICTS A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO FROM SON TO NDJ 2007-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO FOR FMA 2008-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR KAHULUI FROM SON TO OND 2007 AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR KAHULUI AND HONOLULU FROM JFM TO FMA 2008 AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE FROM DJF TO FMA 2008. NCEP CFS PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR SON 2007 AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM DJF TO FMA 2008. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2007 B40 75.5 0.4 B40 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2007 B40 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2007 B40 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2008 EC 72.0 0.4 A40 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2008 EC 71.8 0.4 A40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2008 A40 72.1 0.4 A40 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2008 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2008 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2008 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2008 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2008 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2008 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2008 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2007 B40 77.8 0.5 B40 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2007 B40 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2007 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 EC 72.5 0.5 A40 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2008 A40 72.4 0.5 A40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2008 A40 73.2 0.5 A40 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2008 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2008 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2008 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2008 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2008 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2008 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2008 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2007 EC 79.6 0.5 B40 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2007 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2007 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 A40 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2008 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2008 A40 74.5 0.4 A40 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2008 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2008 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2008 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2008 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2008 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2008 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2008 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2007 EC 77.7 0.3 B40 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2007 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2007 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2008 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2008 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2008 A40 73.1 0.4 A40 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2008 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2008 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2008 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2008 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2008 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2008 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2008 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU SEP 20 2007 $$