PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2007 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2007 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2007 THROUGH THE END OF MAY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 10.33 INCHES (59 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 2.50 INCHES (28 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 3.86 INCHES (35 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 40.42 INCHES (75 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR JULY 2007. NCEP CFS PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO - ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HONOLULU AND LIHUE FOR JULY 2007. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 76.0 0.5 B40 6.5 9.4 11.2 KAHULUI EC 78.9 0.6 B40 0.2 0.3 0.5 HONOLULU A40 80.8 0.5 B40 0.2 0.4 0.4 LIHUE A40 78.9 0.4 B40 1.3 1.8 2.2 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JAS 2007 - JAS 2008 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IS STILL IN AN ENSO-NEUTRAL STATE. SST ANOMALIES ARE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINED BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. CONVECTION WAS GENERALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND SUPPRESSED EAST OF THE DATE LINE. A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE SST ANOMALIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. HOWEVER - RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES INDICATES THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. NCEP CFS PREDICTS A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO FORM JAS 2007 TO ASO 2007 AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE FROM SON 2007 TO DJF 2008. NCEP CFS PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM JAS TO ASO 2007. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2007 B40 76.3 0.4 B40 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2007 B40 76.2 0.4 B40 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2007 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2007 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2007 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2008 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2008 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2008 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2008 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2008 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2008 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2008 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2008 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2007 EC 79.1 0.5 B40 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2007 EC 78.9 0.5 B40 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2007 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2007 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2007 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2008 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2008 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2008 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2008 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2008 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2008 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2008 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2007 EC 81.2 0.4 B40 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2007 EC 81.0 0.5 B40 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2007 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2007 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2007 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2008 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2008 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2008 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2008 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2008 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2008 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2007 A40 79.3 0.3 B40 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2007 A40 79.0 0.3 B40 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2007 A40 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2007 A40 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2007 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2008 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2008 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2008 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2008 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2008 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2008 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2008 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2008 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUL 19 2007 $$