PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2007

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE BETWEEN .5 AND 1.5 DEGREES C BELOW NORMAL 
IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN FROM ABOUT 120 W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST... 
WHILE SSTS IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THESE SSTS 
AND OTHER INDICATORS ARE CONSISTENT WITH NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS. ENSO-NEUTRAL 
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MONTH OF JULY.  WITH THE POSSIBLE 
EXCEPTION OF RAINFALL DUE TO TROPICAL SYSTEMS ENSO DOES NOT HAVE A VERY STRONG 
INFLUENCE ON JULY CLIMATE ANOMALIES OVER THE U.S. IN ANY CASE. 

THE UPDATE AT THE END OF JUNE TAKES INTO ACCOUNT ANY CHANGES IN A FEW OF THE 
LONG LEAD TOOLS SUCH AS CFS AND CAS WHICH ARE UPDATED EVERY DAY. MORE 
IMPORTANTLY WE USE THE NWP FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS TO AMEND THE JULY 
PREDICTION. RATHER IMPORTANTLY ON THIS OCCASION THE PATTERN ESTABLISHED IN MAY 
AND JUNE HAS PERSISTED AND STILL DOMINATES THE NWP FOR WEEK1 AND WEEK2. THUS 
THE PATTERN OF WARM AND DRY BOTH IN THE WEST AND IN THE EAST AND COOL AND WET 
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY APPEARS A VERY GOOD BET FOR JULY. 

AS TO TEMPERATURE WE SLIGHTLY EXPANDED IN THE WEST THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND THE PROBABILITY WAS GENERALLY INCREASED. FOR THE COAST OF 
SOUTHER CALIFORNIA WE INCLUDED A BELOW AVERAGE AREA DUE TO PERSISTENTLY COLD 
SST. NO CHANGES WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION WE EXPANDED THE AREA IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY FOR 
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES. THE HIGHEST 
PROBABILITIES ARE PLACED IN OKLAHOMA, TEXAS ETC  WHERE SHORT TERM FORECASTS 
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR JULY 1 AND 2. NO CHANGES WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

BELOW IS THE PMD AS OF JUNE 21 WHEN ONLY LONG LEAD TOOLS WERE AVAILABLE.

THE JULY PREDICTION MAP HAS UNUSUALLY HIGH COVERAGE FOR A MONTHLY FORECAST. 
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TRADITIONAL TOOLS AND STRONG INITIAL SOIL 
MOISTURE ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED AS OF MID JUNE OVER LARGE AREAS OF THE COUNTRY. 
WE THUS PLACE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TOOLS THAT INCLUDE SOIL MOISTURE AS 
PREDICTOR. MOREOVER WE HAVE BEEN - FOR SOME TIME - IN A PATTERN OF COOL AND WET 
IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND WARM AND DRY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE 
SOUTHEAST. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS ALSO INDICATED FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AND AT 
THIS POINT WE ESSENTIALLY PERSIST THESE FEATURES INTO JULY  .

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FROM CCA OCN AND SMLR FOR WARMTH IN MUCH OF THE WEST 
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE IN THE EAST. IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WE PREDICT AN 
ENHANCED PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TOOLS THAT SUPPORT COOL 
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS FROM TEXAS TO IOWA INCLUDE CFS CAS ECCA OCN AND SMLR 
BUT THE SKILL OF THESE TOOLS IN THESE AREAS IS NOT NECESSARILY VERY HIGH. ALL 
OF ALASKA IS INDICATED AS WARM BY MOST TOOLS.

THERE IS UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG CCA OCN AND SMLR FOR BELOW MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION IN JULY IN THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST 
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WE PREDICT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION FROM TEXAS TO IOWA. THIS HAS THE SUPPORT FROM CAS AND ECCA AND 
FITS IN WITH PERSISTENCE OF THE GENERAL PATTERN THAT IS IN PLACE.

NOTE THAT THE PREDICTED COOL AND WET IN JULY IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY IS 
VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF WHERE IT HAS BEEN IN JUNE 1-20TH AVERAGED. THIS IS 
CONSISTENT WITH RESEARCH INDICATING RECYCLED MOISTURE FALLING SOMEWHAT 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH EVAPORATION.  

FORECASTER: HUUG VAN DEN DOOL

NOTES: AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL 
PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED AS EC (EQUAL CHANCES).

THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR AUGUST 2007...WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUL 19 2007

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.

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