PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APR 2007 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO HALF DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL. FOR JANUARY 2007 THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 3.19 INCHES (40 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 1.50 INCHES (29 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 1.41 INCHES (23 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 26.46 INCHES (142 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL 2007. NCEP CFS ALSO PREDICTS A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR APRIL 2007. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 72.6 0.5 B40 7.6 10.3 11.0 KAHULUI B40 74.3 0.6 B40 0.5 1.0 1.3 HONOLULU B40 76.0 0.5 B40 0.5 0.7 1.0 LIHUE B40 74.1 0.5 B40 1.6 2.7 3.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APR-MAY-JUN 2007 TO APR-MAY-JUN 2008 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. WARM SST ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH EL NIŅO DISAPPEARED FROM THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC EAST OF THE DATE LINE. SSTS WERE NEAR AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATE LINE - AND BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 140°W AND THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE LATEST WEEKLY SST DEPARTURES HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 0.5ēC IN THE NIŅO 4 REGION AND TO NEAR 0 ēC IN THE NIŅO 3.4 REGION - AND HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE NIŅO 3 AND NIŅO 1+2 REGIONS. THE EQUATORIAL UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALSO DECREASED RAPIDLY. MOST OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL ANOMALOUS COOLING DURING THE NEXT 2-3 MONTHS. SUBSURFACE CONDITIONS AND RECENT CFS FORECAST INDICATE A TRANSITION FROM ENSO-NEUTRAL TO LA NINA CONDITION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. NCEP CFS PREDICTS A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORM AMJ 2007 TO JAS 2007. NCEP CFS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS ... CCA ... SMLR ... OCN GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2007 B40 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2007 B40 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2007 B40 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2007 B40 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2007 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2007 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2007 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2007 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2008 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2008 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2008 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2008 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2008 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2007 B40 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2007 B40 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2007 B40 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2007 B40 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2007 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2007 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2007 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2007 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2008 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2008 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2008 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2008 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2007 B40 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2007 B40 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2007 B40 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2007 B40 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2007 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2007 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2007 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2007 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2008 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2008 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2008 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2007 B40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2007 B40 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2007 B40 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2007 B40 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2007 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2007 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2007 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2007 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2008 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2008 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2008 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2008 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2008 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY APRIL 19 2007. $$