PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR 2007 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO HALF DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2007 - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 1.69 INCHES (37 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 1.10 INCHES (41 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 0.48 INCHES (13 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 12.23 INCHES (126 PERCENT OF NORMAL). STATISTICAL TOOLS ... CCA ... SMLR ... OCN ... GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2007. NCEP CFS AND CCA PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR MARCH 2007. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 72.1 0.6 B40 5.7 12.1 15.4 KAHULUI EC 73.2 0.6 B40 1.4 2.0 2.9 HONOLULU EC 74.5 0.5 B40 0.7 1.2 2.5 LIHUE EC 72.9 0.5 B40 1.5 2.5 3.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR-APR-MAY 2007 TO MAR-APR-MAY 2008 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. NOW WE ARE IN A TRANSITION FROM WEAK EL NIŅO CONDITIONS TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. SST ANOMALIES DECREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING JANUARY. THE LATEST SST DEPARTURES IN THE NIŅO REGIONS ARE AROUND 0.5ēC. THE EQUATORIAL UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HAS BEEN DECREASING RAPIDLY. THESE TRENDS IN SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT EL NIŅO IS WEAKENING. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE EL NIŅO-RELATED EFFECTS DURING THE NEXT MONTH - PRIMARILY IN THE REGION OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC. A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE SST ANOMALIES WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 3 MONTHS - WITH A RETURN TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING THE NORTHERN SPRING. SUBSURFACE CONDITIONS AND RECENT FORECASTS INDICATE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LA NIŅA DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER - THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTS FOR PERIODS AFTER MAY 2007. NCEP CFS PREDICTS A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORM MJJ 2007 TO JJA 2007. NCEP CFS AND CCA INDICATE A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM MAM 2007 TO AMJ 2007. SHORT TERM GLOBAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS SUCH AS THE ENSO PHENOMENON ARE FOUND TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN HAWAII. DURING THE LATE WINTER AND SPRING OF ENSO EVENTS - DRIER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HAWAII AND MOST OF THE U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS IN THE NORTH TROPICAL PACIFIC. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2007 EC 72.8 0.5 B40 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2007 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2007 B40 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2007 B40 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2007 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2007 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2007 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2007 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2007 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2008 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2008 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2008 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2008 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.6 B40 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2007 EC 75.8 0.6 B40 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2007 B40 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2007 B40 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2007 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2007 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2007 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2007 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2007 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2008 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2008 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2008 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2007 EC 76.0 0.4 B40 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2007 EC 77.7 0.4 B40 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2007 B40 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2007 B40 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2007 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2007 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2007 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2007 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2007 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2008 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2008 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.4 B40 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 B40 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2007 B40 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2007 B40 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2007 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2007 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2007 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2007 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2007 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2008 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2008 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2008 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2008 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY MAR 15 2007. $$