PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EST THU JAN 18 2007 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB 2007 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO HALF DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2006 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 66.49 INCHES (168 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 29.72 INCHES (162 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 17.45 INCHES (93 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 122.03 INCHES (97 PERCENT OF NORMAL). STATISTICAL TOOLS ... CCA ... SMLR ... OCN ... GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2007. NCEP CFS AND CCA PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR FEBRUARY 2007. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 71.6 0.5 B40 4.3 6.8 9.6 KAHULUI EC 72.1 0.6 B40 0.8 1.4 2.0 HONOLULU EC 73.1 0.5 B40 0.8 1.3 2.3 LIHUE EC 71.9 0.6 B40 1.2 1.7 3.2 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB-MAR-APR 2007 TO FEB-MAR-APR 2008 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SST ANOMALIES REMAIN BETWEEN +1C AND +1.2C IN ALL OF THE NIÑO REGIONS - EXCEPT FOR THE NIÑO 1+2 REGION – WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL EQUATORIAL EASTERLY WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH NEGATIVE VALUES OF SOI. THE PATTERN OF SST ANOMALIES INDICATES WEAK-TO-MODERATE WARM-EPISODE CONDITIONS - BUT EL NIÑO EVENT HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MJO MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING OF THE EL NIÑO EVENT. HOWEVER - MOST OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODELS INDICATE THAT SST ANOMALIES ARE NEAR THEIR PEAK AND THAT DECREASING ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY DURING FEBRUARY-MAY 2007. NCEP CFS AND CCA PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORM MJJ 2007 TO JJA 2007. NCEP CFS AND CCA INDICATE A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM FMA 2007 TO AMJ 2007. SHORT TERM GLOBAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS SUCH AS THE ENSO PHENOMENON ARE FOUND TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN HAWAII. DURING THE LATE WINTER AND SPRING OF ENSO EVENTS - DRIER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HAWAII AND MOST OF THE U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS IN THE NORTH TROPICAL PACIFIC. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2007 EC 72.1 0.4 B40 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2007 EC 72.8 0.5 B40 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2007 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2007 B40 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2007 B40 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2007 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2007 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2007 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2007 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2007 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2008 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2008 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2008 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2007 EC 73.2 0.5 B40 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.6 B40 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2007 EC 75.8 0.6 B40 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2007 B40 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2007 B40 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2007 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2007 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2007 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2007 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2007 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2008 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2008 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2007 EC 74.5 0.4 B40 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2007 EC 76.0 0.4 B40 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2007 EC 77.7 0.4 B40 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2007 B40 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2007 B40 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2007 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2007 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2007 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2007 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2007 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2008 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2007 EC 73.1 0.4 B40 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.4 B40 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 B40 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2007 B40 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2007 B40 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2007 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2007 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2007 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2007 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2007 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2008 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2008 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2008 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY FEB 15 2007. $$