PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST TUE OCT 31 2006

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2006

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING OCTOBER, WITH SSTS BY THE END OF THE MONTH 
MORE THAN 1.0 DEG C ABOVE AVERAGE BETWEEN 170E AND 145W AND BETWEEN 125W AND 
THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.  DEPARTURES OF MORE THAN 2.0 DEGREES CELSIUS 
WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE AND BETWEEN 115W AND THE SOUTH 
AMERICAN COAST.  DURING THE PAST MONTH PERSISTENT NEGATIVE SATELLITE-BASED 
OUTGOING LONG-WAVE RADIATION (OLR) ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE 
WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC, INDICATING ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THAT 
REGION.  POSITIVE OLR ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED OVER WESTERN INDONESIA, PORTIONS 
OF MALAYSIA AND THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN.  LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC AVERAGED WEAKER THAN NORMAL DURING OCTOBER WHILE UPPER LEVEL 
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL 
PACIFIC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TYPICAL OF THE EARLY STAGES OF EL NINO.  THE 
LATEST NCEP COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) 
FORECAST INDICATES CONTINUED STRENGTHENING THROUGH JFM, WHEN IT PREDICTS 
ANOMALIES AVERAGED OVER THE BOX DEFINED BY 170W EASTWARD TO 120W, AND 5 DEGREE 
NORTH AND SOUTH LATITUDE (NINO 3.4) OF 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS.  A MAJORITY OF 
OTHER MODELS ALSO PREDICT CONTINUED STRENTHENING, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS DOES THE 
CFS.

THE UPDATED MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2006 CALLS FOR ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR HAWAII AND PARTS OF ALASKA.  THE 
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REFLECTS INPUT FROM THE TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL TOOLS, AND 
THE CFS... COMBINED WITH INDICATIONS FROM THE FIRST COUPLE OF WEEKS OF THE 
MONTH.  DESPITE A COLD START TO THE MONTH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
PARTS OF THE CONUS... IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND 
MIDWESTERN PART OF THE NATION WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF 
THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.  A RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH DURING THE FIRST FEW 
WEEKS OF THE MONTH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA. 

THE UPDATED MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2006 CALLS FOR ABOVE 
MEDIAN MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... IN WESTERN 
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  BELOW-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICPATED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING THE MONTH.  
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REFLECTS INPUT FROM THE TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL 
TOOLS, THE CFS AND THE CAS, WHICH HAVE SOME LIMITED SKILL OVER TEXAS FOR THIS 
FORECAST COMBINED WITH INDICATIONS FROM THE FIRST COUPLE OF WEEKS OF THE MONTH. 
 IN PARTICULAR VERY WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 
COAST DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE MONTH... WITH ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION 
ALSO FAVORED OVER THIS REGION DURING THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS.  

FORECASTER: M HALPERT

NOTES - AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL 
PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).

THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR DECEMBER 2006... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU NOV 16 
2006

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.

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