PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2006 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCT 2006 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER 2006. FOR 2006 THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 58.03 INCHES (250 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 23.32 INCHES (226 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 6.77 INCHES (55 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 95.21 INCHES (117 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS - CCA - SMLR INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR OCTOBER 2006. CCA - OCN - SMLR TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR OCTOBER 2006. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 75.8 0.5 EC 8.1 9.6 10.5 KAHULUI B40 78.3 0.5 EC 0.4 0.6 1.0 HONOLULU B40 80.0 0.5 EC 0.3 1.4 1.9 LIHUE B40 78.1 0.4 EC 2.0 3.2 4.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCT-NOV-DEC 2006 TO OCT-NOV-DEC 2007 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SST ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5ºC WERE OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - WITH ANOMALIES EXCEEDING +1.0ºC IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 165ºE AND 170ºW. WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL EQUATORIAL EASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SOI WAS NEGATIVE FOR THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS MOST OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. MORE THAN HALF OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL PREDICTIONS ARE ALSO FAVORING EL NIÑO CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2006 AND INTO THE NH SPRING 2007. The OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES CONDITIONS SUPPORT THESE PREDICTIONS. EL NIÑO CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY 2007. NCEP CFS AND CCA PREDICT A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORM OND 2006 TO MAM 2006. NCEP CFS INDICATES A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM DJF 2007 TO MAM 2007. SHORT TERM GLOBAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS SUCH AS THE ENSO PHENOMENON ARE FOUND TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN HAWAII. DURING THE LATE WINTER AND SPRIND OF ENSO EVENTS - DRIER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EXPECTED IN THE HAWAII AND MOST OF THE U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS IN THE NORTH TROPICAL PACIFIC. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2006 B40 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2006 B40 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2007 B40 72.0 0.4 B40 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2007 B40 71.8 0.4 B40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2007 B40 72.1 0.4 B40 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2007 B40 72.8 0.5 B40 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2007 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2007 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2007 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2007 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2007 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2007 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2006 B40 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2006 B40 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 B40 72.5 0.5 B40 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2007 B40 72.4 0.5 B40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2007 B40 73.2 0.5 B40 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2007 B40 74.4 0.6 B40 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2007 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2007 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2007 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2007 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2007 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2007 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2007 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2006 B40 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2006 B40 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 B40 73.5 0.4 B40 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2007 B40 73.5 0.4 B40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2007 B40 74.5 0.4 B40 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2007 B40 76.0 0.4 B40 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2007 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2007 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2007 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2007 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2007 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2007 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2007 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2006 B40 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2006 B40 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2007 B40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2007 B40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2007 B40 73.1 0.4 B40 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2007 B40 74.4 0.4 B40 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2007 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2007 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2007 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2007 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2007 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2007 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY OCT 19 2006. $$