PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2006 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEP 2006 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2006. FOR 2006 THROUGH THE END OF JULY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 53.29 INCHES (253 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 23.21 INCHES (237 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 6.72 INCHES (57 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 89.52 INCHES (125 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS AND CCA INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR SEPTEMBER 2006. CCA - OCN - SMLR TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2006. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 76.4 0.5 EC 5.4 8.7 9.9 KAHULUI B40 79.2 0.6 EC 0.1 0.2 0.3 HONOLULU B40 81.4 0.5 EC 0.4 0.5 0.9 LIHUE B40 79.4 0.3 EC 1.4 1.8 2.0 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEP-OCT-NOV 2006 TO SEP-OCT-NOV 2007 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EQUATORIAL SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES INCREASED DURING JULY 2006 - WITH SST ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5C OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 130ºE AND 140ºW. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED IN ALL OF THE NIÑO REGIONS. DURING JULY - LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WERE WEAKER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - AND THE SOI WAS NEGATIVE FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH. BEGINNING IN FEBRUARY - THE BASIN-WIDE UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INCREASED - AND SINCE EARLY APRIL POSITIVE ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS RANGE FROM ENSO-NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM EPISODE CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2006 AND INTO EARLY 2007. THE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT BUILD UP IN UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE EQUATOR - INDICATING A TREND TOWARD WARM-EPISODE CONDITIONS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG INTRASEASONAL ACTIVITY - A CONTINUED SLOW TREND TOWARD WARM-EPISODE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT ONE TO THREE MONTHS - WITH A 50% CHANCE THAT WEAK EL NIÑO CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY THE END OF 2006. NCEP CFS AND CCA PREDICT A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORM SON 2006 TO OND 2006. CCA - OCN - SMLR TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT SEVERAL SEASONS. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2006 B40 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2006 B40 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2006 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2007 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2007 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2007 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2007 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2007 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2007 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2007 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2007 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2007 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2006 B40 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2006 B40 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2007 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2007 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2007 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2007 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2007 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2007 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2007 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2006 B40 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2006 B40 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2007 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2007 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2007 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2007 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2007 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2007 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2007 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2007 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2006 B40 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2006 B40 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2006 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2007 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2007 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2007 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2007 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2007 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2006 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY SEP 21 2006. $$