PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUG 2006 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 2006. FOR 2006 THROUGH THE END OF JUNE - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 50.04 INCHES (261 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 23.12 INCHES (249 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 6.58 INCHES (59 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 81.69 INCHES (134 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS AND CCA INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR AUGUST 2006. CCA - OCN - SMLR TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR AUGUST 2006. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 76.5 0.4 EC 7.0 8.4 9.4 KAHULUI B40 79.6 0.5 EC 0.3 0.2 0.6 HONOLULU B40 81.6 0.5 EC 0.1 0.5 0.3 LIHUE B40 79.6 0.4 EC 1.3 1.8 2.0 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUG-SEP-OCT 2006 TO AUG-SEP-OCT 2007 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT PATTERNS OF ANOMALOUS OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ARE CONSISTENT WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED IN BOTH THE NIŅO 4 AND NIŅO 3.4 REGIONS - WHILE ANOMALIES REMAINED NEAR ZERO IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BEGINNING IN FEBRUARY THE BASIN-WIDE UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INCREASED - AND SINCE EARLY APRIL POSITIVE ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. MOST OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODELS PREDICT SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE NIŅO 3.4 REGION THROUGH THE END OF 2006. THESE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT BUILD UP IN UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE EQUATOR. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES HAVE BEEN NEAR AVERAGE - IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. HOWEVER - THE SPREAD OF THE FORECASTS INDICATES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTLOOK FOR LATE 2006 AND EARLY 2007. NCEP CFS AND CCA PREDICT A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM ASO 2006 TO SON 2006. CCA - OCN - SMLR TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT SEVERAL SEASONS. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2006 B40 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2006 B40 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2006 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2006 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2007 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2007 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2007 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2007 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2007 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2007 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2007 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2007 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2006 B40 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2006 B40 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2006 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2007 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2007 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2007 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2007 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2007 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2007 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2006 B40 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2006 B40 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2006 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2007 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2007 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2007 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2007 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2007 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2007 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2007 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2006 B40 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2006 B40 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2006 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2006 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2007 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2007 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2007 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2007 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2007 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY AUG 17 2006. $$