PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL 2006 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JULY 2006. FOR 2006 THROUGH THE END OF MAY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 49.27 INCHES (283 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 23.03 INCHES (259 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 6.55 INCHES (60 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 77.50 INCHES (145 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS AND CCA INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR JULY 2006. CCA - OCN - SMLR TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JULY 2006. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B45 76.0 0.5 EC 6.5 9.4 11.2 KAHULUI B45 78.9 0.6 EC 0.2 0.3 0.5 HONOLULU B45 80.8 0.5 EC 0.2 0.4 0.4 LIHUE B45 78.9 0.4 EC 1.3 1.8 2.2 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL-AUG-SEP 2006 TO JUL-AUG-SEP 2007 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE RECENT PATTERNS OF SST AND UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR-AVERAGE (ENSO-NEUTRAL) CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. DURING MAY 2006 SSTS WERE NEAR AVERAGE AT MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE DATE LINE AND 90ºW - WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE NEAR ZERO DEPARTURES OBSERVED IN ALL OF THE NIÑO REGIONS. THE ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF INDONESIA AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA - WHILE BELOW-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2006 - ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD (UNCERTAINTY) IN THE FORECASTS IS RATHER HIGH TOWARDS THE END OF 2006. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. NCEP CFS AND CCA PREDICT A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORM JAS 2006 TO ASO 2006. CCA PREDICTS A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE PRECIPITATION FOR HONOLULU AND LIHUE on JAS 2006. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2006 B45 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2006 B40 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2006 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2006 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2006 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2007 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2007 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2007 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2007 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2007 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2007 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2007 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2006 B45 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2006 B40 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2006 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2006 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2007 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2007 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2007 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2007 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2007 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2006 B45 81.2 0.4 A40 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2006 B40 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2006 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2006 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2007 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2007 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2007 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2007 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2007 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2007 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2006 B45 79.3 0.3 A40 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2006 B40 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2006 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2006 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2006 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2007 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2007 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2007 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2007 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JUL 20 2006. $$