PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE SEASONAL CLIMATE INCLUDE 1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH TOGETHER MAKE UP EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO - 2) TRENDS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 1971-2000) - 3) TROPICAL 30-60-DAY OSCILLATION- WHICH MAY AFFECT CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN A SEASON - 4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION - OR NAO - AND 5) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. 6) AN OBJECTIVE CONSOLIDATION (CALLED CON IN THE TEXT) OF THE OCN, CCA, SMLR AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST-GUESS IN PREPARING THE FORECAST MAPS. SSTS IN MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO NORMAL... INDICATING NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS. MOST PREDICTION TOOLS INDICATE THAT SSTS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE ENSO-SENSITIVE REGIONS OF THE PACIFIC... SUGGESTING THAT CLIMATE IMPACTS RELATED TO EL NINO OR LA NINA IN THIS SERIES OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE NEGLIGABLE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JUL-AUG-SEP (JAS) 2006 CALLS FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE U.S. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IN NORTHERN ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF WARMER-THAN ... COOLER-THAN... OR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING JAS. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE MAINLY DUE TO TRENDS... ALTHOUGH DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERIOR TEXAS ALSO HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THOSE REGIONS. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR JUL-AUG-SEP (JAS) 2006 CALLS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... DUE TO LONG TERM TRENDS IN THE REGION. INITIALLY DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF DRY CONDITIONS IN WESTERN TEXAS. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED OVER FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DUE TO LONG TERM TRENDS AND THE EXPECTATION OF AN ACTIVE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SHOULD NOT BE USED TO INFER CHANGES IN HURRICANE STRIKE PROBABILITIES. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... EAST OF ABOUT 140W ARE WITHIN .5 DEG C OF NORMAL... EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST WHERE SSTS ARE CLOSE TO 1 DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL. EQUATORIAL SSTS ARE BETWEEN .5 AND 1 DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL FROM ABOUT 140W TO NEAR INDONESIA. THE SSTS IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION... A CRITICAL INDICATOR FOR THE ENSO STATE... CURRENTLY AVERAGE ABOUT .3 DEG C ABOVE NORMAL. BOTH THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AVERAGED CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO. THESE INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT ENSO IS IN A NEUTRAL PHASE. CONVECTION PATTERNS IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAK MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO)... CURRENTLY FAVORING SUPRESSED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS... AND IS NOW ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVERAGE. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS MOST STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS INDICATE THAT NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 0 AND 0.5 DEGREES C FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. A CONSOLIDATION OF NCEP SST MODELS PREDICTS THAT NINO 3.4 SSTS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AROUND .3 DEGREES C ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS A RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS... INDICATING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. MODEL SPREAD DOES NOT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CHANCES THAT THE NINO 3.4 SSTS WILL EXCEED THE 0.5 DEGREE C THRESHOLD FOR MINIMAL EL NINO RELATED IMPACTS IS AROUND 35 PERCENT IN OND 2006... DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE BOREAL WINTER AND INTO EARLY 2007. THUS NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH ALL SEASONS COVERED BY THIS OUTLOOK. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS THE OUTLOOK FOR JAS 2006 THROUGH JAS 2007 IS BASED ON THE CFS... THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE FROM IRI... AND THE CDC-CCA RENDERING OF THE MOST LIKELY CONSENSUS FORECAST OF SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS... AS WELL AS CCA... ECCA... SMLR... AND OCN. FORECASTS FROM JAS THROUGH DJF 2006 PRIMARILY REFLECT THE CONSOLIDATED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS (A SKILL-WEIGHTED OBJECTIVE BLEND OF CFS... CCA... SMLR... AND OCN)... AS WELL AS THE CFS. THE OUTLOOKS FOR JFM 2007 THROUGH JAS 2007 ARE BASED LARGELY ON A CONSOLIDATION OF CCA... SMLR... AND OCN (CFS IS NOT AVAILABLE AFTER LEAD 6)... AS WELL AS LONG-TERM TRENDS. A STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOL BASED ON ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS (CAS) HAD SOME INFLUENCE ON THE OUTLOOK FOR JAS AND ASO 2006. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JAS 2006 TO JAS 2007 TEMPERATURE: TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR JAS AND ASO 2006 ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE ISSUED LAST MONTH EXCEPT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WHERE THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED DUE TO INITIALLY DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. THE OUTLOOKS FOR SON 2006 THROUGH DJF 2006-2007 REFLECT FORECASTS FROM OCN... CCA... SMLR... AND CFS... HOWEVER... WITH ENSO EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES IN THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS... TEMPERATURE TRENDS DOMINATE THE PREDICTABLE SIGNALS FROM THESE TOOLS. THE OUTLOOKS FOR JFM 2007 AND BEYOND ARE ALMOST ENTIRELY A REFLECTION OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM JAS TO SON 2006 AND APPEAR IN THE EAST IN NEW ENGLAND AND FLORIDA. THE WARM SIGNAL IN THE EAST WEAKENS IN THE FALL TRANSITION SEASON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS WINTER APPROACHES. TRENDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME STRONGEST IN LATE WINTER... WHEN THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE CONUS. TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. WEAKEN IN THE SPRING... BUT REMAIN ELEVATED IN LIMITED AREAS. AN AREA FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN MJJ 2007 AND SPREADS NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY JJA 2007 BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN AS THE FALL TRANSITION SEASON APPROACHES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA IN MOST SEASONS EXCEPT FOR THE FALL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN NORTHERN ALASKA IN THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASONS. PRECIPITATION: BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR JAS 2006 NEAR WESTERN TEXAS DUE TO INDICATIONS FROM A VARIATY OF TOOLS... INCLUDING THE CFS... ECCA... AND CAS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN JAS AND ASO... DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WAS INCLUDED IN THIS AREA IN LAST MONTHS OUTLOOK... HOWEVER CONTRARY INDICATIONS FROM THE IRI MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PROMPTED A REVISION TO EC. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM JAS THROUGH SON 2006 IS FROM LONG TERM TRENDS AND AN ANTICIPATED ACTIVE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE REMAINING OUTLOOKS ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE ISSUED FOR CORRESPONDING SEASONS LAST MONTH. CCA AND THE CONSOLIDATION FORECASTS SHOW STRONGER INDICATIONS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION NEAR NORTHERN TEXAS IN DJF AND JFM 2007 THAN THEY DID A MONTH AGO... SO THE CHANCES FOR WET CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THAT REGION AND THOSE SEASONS IN COMPARISON WITH LAST MONTHS OUTLOOK. TRENDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTRIBUTED TO THE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR WET CONDITIONS THERE IN AMJ THROUGH JJA 2007. OCN FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN FLORIDA FOR JAS 2007... AND FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. NOTE - AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES). FORECASTER: D. UNGER STARTING WITH THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK RELEASED IN FEBRUARY, 2006, THE GLOSSARY OF TERMS WILL NO LONGER APPEAR WITH THIS MESSAGE. INSTEAD, TERMS THAT ARE IN THE GLOSSARY WILL BE LINKED TO THEIR DEFINITION. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL - AND THE FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/DISC.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) INFORMATION ON THE FORMULATION AND SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/FORECASTS.HTML (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS) NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUL 20 2006. 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 17, 2001 FORECAST RELEASE $$