PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2006

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC 
OCEAN ARE JUST ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS.  THUS ENSO 
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS OVER 
THE U.S. DURING JULY. 

THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JULY ARE BASED ON THE 
INDICATIONS FROM VARIOUS STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL CLIMATE PREDICTION TOOLS AND 
TRENDS. THE END OF THE MONTH UPDATE ALSO USES THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
WEATHER PREDICTION TOOLS. 

ON JUNE 15 THE DESCRIPTION FOR TEMPERATURE WAS: ABOVE MEDIAN TEMPERATURES ARE 
PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH ... ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF 
THE U.S. MANY TOOLS SUPPORT THIS FORECAST INCLUDING TOOLS BASED SOLELY ON 
ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY QUITE DEFICIENT OVER A VERY LARGE 
AREA IN THE CENTER OF THE NATION. CCA AND OCN SUPPORT WARMTH ALONG THE WEST 
COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAVE CONFLICTING 
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND ONLY WEAK INDICATIONS CAN BE FOUND FOR THE 
NORTHEAST...HENCE EC IS FORECAST THERE.
ON JUNE 30 WE REMOVED THE 50% AREA FOR ABOVE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND 
GENERALLY REDUCED THE WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTH BECAUSE THE MONTH WILL NOT START 
VERY WARM IN THE SOUTH. THE AREA FOR ABOVE WAS EXTENDED OVER A VERY LARGE AREA 
IN THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST ALL THE WAY TO THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM MINNESOTA TO 
THE WEST COAST. THE MONTH WILL START DECIDELY WARM IN THAT AREA. THERE IS NO 
CHANGE IN ALASKA AS SHORT RANGE AND LONG LEAD TOOLS AGREE.

ON JUNE 15 THE DESCRIPTION FOR PRECIPITATION WAS: BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS 
INDICATED FOR 2 SEPARATE AND LIMITED AREAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE 
NORTHWEST. THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AREA IS INDICATED MAINLY BY CAS BECAUSE OF 
DRY SOIL. CCA, OCN AND CFS SUPPORT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN WASHINGTON 
OREGON IDAHO AND SOME OF MONTANA. INDICATIONS ELSEWHERE - INCLUDING ALASKA - 
ARE WEAK, HENCE EC.
ON JUNE 30 WE MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE. THERE ARE NO AREAS AT ALL WITH HEAVY 
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JULY. WE SHRUNK THE 
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE AREA FOR BELOW MEDIAN IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BECAUSE 
SOME PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN 6-10 AND WEEK2 FORECASTS.

 

FORECASTER: H. VAN DEN DOOL

NOTES - AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL 
PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).

THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR AUGUST 2006... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUL 20 2006

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.

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