PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUN 2006 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2006. FOR 2006 THROUGH THE END OF APRIL - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 47.96 INCHES (331 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 21.88 INCHES (270 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 5.80 INCHES (56 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 54.99 INCHES (121 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS AND CCA INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR JUNE 2006. CCA - OCN - SMLR TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JUNE 2006. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B50 75.3 0.4 EC 4.4 5.2 9.1 KAHULUI B50 77.7 0.7 EC 0.1 0.1 0.2 HONOLULU B50 79.7 0.5 EC 0.1 0.2 0.3 LIHUE B50 77.8 0.4 EC 0.9 1.3 1.9 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUN-JUL-AUG 2006 TO JUN-JUL-AUG 2007 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE RECENT PATTERNS OF SST AND UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A RETURN TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. DURING APRIL - NEGATIVE SST DEPARTURES DEVELOPED IN THE EXTREME EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF INDONESIA AND NORTHERN AUSTRALIA - WHILE BELOW-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 20šN. SLIGHTLY STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - AND ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WERE OBSERVED IN BOTH HEMISPHERES. ALTHOUGH THESE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES ARE LINGERING EFFECTS OF LA NINA - THEY ARE WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MONTHS. THESE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC FEATURES SIGNAL THE DEMISE OF LA NIŅA AND A RETURN TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODELS PREDICT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE END OF 2006. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3-6 MONTHS. NCEP CFS AND CCA PREDICT A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORM JJA 2006 TO ASO 2006. CCA PREDICTS A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE PRECIPITATION FOR HONOLULU AND LIHUE on SUMMER (JJA AND JAS) 2006. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2006 B45 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2006 B45 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2006 B40 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2006 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2006 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2006 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2007 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2007 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2007 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2007 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2007 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2007 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2006 B45 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2006 B45 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2006 B40 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2006 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2006 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2007 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2007 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2007 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2007 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2006 B45 80.7 0.4 A40 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2006 B45 81.2 0.4 A40 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2006 B40 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2006 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2006 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2007 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2007 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2007 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2007 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2007 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2006 B45 78.8 0.3 A40 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2006 B45 79.3 0.3 A40 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2006 B40 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2006 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2006 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2006 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2007 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2007 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2007 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JUN 15 2006. $$