PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2006

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC 
OCEAN ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL... INDICATING NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS.  THUS ENSO IS 
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS OVER THE 
U.S. DURING JUNE. 

THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JUNE ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 
INDICATIONS FROM VARIOUS STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL CLIMATE PREDICTION TOOLS AND 
TRENDS.  THESE CLIMATIC SIGNALS ARE REVISED ON THE BASIS OF TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS EXPECTED IN THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JUNE PREDICTED FROM 
DYNAMIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE 
NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S IN THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF 
JUNE... SO THE EXPECTED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT APPEARED IN THE 
30-DAY OUTLOOK RELEASED IN MID-MONTH IS EXPANDED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO 
INCLUDE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.  THE AREA OF ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WAS TRIMMED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT 
EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE MONTH.  

THE EXTENDED RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE 
SAME REGION THAT THE CFS MODEL HAD BEEN PREDICTING ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW 
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION... SO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE 
CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  SHORT TERM FORECASTS FOR SIGNIFICANT 
PRECIPITATION IN NEW ENGLAND... EASTERN TEXAS... AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD ENHANCE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN MONTHLY TOTALS IN 
THOSE AREAS. 

FORECASTER: D. UNGER

NOTES - AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL 
PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).

THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JULY 2006... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUN 15 2006

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.

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