PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU APR 20 2006 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2006 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2006. FOR 2006 THROUGH THE END OF MARCH - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 46.65 INCHES (406 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 21.13 INCHES (302 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 5.60 INCHES (66 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 46.30 INCHES (140 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS INDICATES A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR KAHULUI AND HONOLULU FOR MAY 2006. CCA - OCN - SMLR TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MAY 2006. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 73.8 0.6 EC 5.9 7.4 8.1 KAHULUI B40 75.7 0.7 EC 0.2 0.5 0.6 HONOLULU B40 77.6 0.4 EC 0.2 0.4 0.8 LIHUE EC 75.7 0.6 EC 1.2 1.7 2.6 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY-JUN-JUL 2006 TO MAY-JUN-JUL 2007 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. DURING MARCH ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER INDONESIA, THE PHILIPPINES - NORTHERN AUSTRALIA AND HAWAII - WHILE BELOW-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 10šN. NEGATIVE ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC PERSISTED DURING FEBRUARY-MARCH 2006. MOST OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE END OF 2006. LA NIŅA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 MONTHS. NCEP CFS PREDICTS A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORM JJA 2006 TO ASO 2006. NCEP CFS AND CCA INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE PRECIPITATION FOR MJJ 2006. CCA ALSO PREDICTS A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE PRECIPITATION FOR HONOLULU AND LIHUE on SUMMER (JJA AND JAS) 2006. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2006 EC 75.0 0.4 A40 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2006 B40 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2006 B40 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2006 B40 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2006 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2006 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2006 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2007 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2007 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2007 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2007 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2007 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2007 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2006 EC 77.3 0.6 A40 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2006 B40 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2006 B40 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2006 B40 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2006 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2006 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2007 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2007 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2007 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2006 EC 79.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2006 B40 80.7 0.4 A40 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2006 B40 81.2 0.4 A40 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2006 B40 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2006 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2006 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2007 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2007 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2007 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2007 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2006 EC 77.5 0.4 A40 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2006 B40 78.8 0.3 A40 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2006 B40 79.3 0.3 A40 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2006 B40 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2006 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2006 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2006 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2007 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2007 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY MAY 18 2006. $$