PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APR 2006 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2006 WERE: - HILO AIRPORT 8.46 INCHES (95 PERCENT OF NORMAL). - KAHULUI AIRPORT 0.69 INCHES (29 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 2.62 INCHES (111 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - LIHUE AIRPORT 8.64 INCHES (265 PERCENT OF NORMAL) PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE FIRST 15 DAYS OF MARCH ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF MEAN MONTHLY TOTALS AT HILO... HONOLULU AND LIHUE. SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE WITHIN 0.5 DEGREES C OF NORMAL. FORECASTS FROM THE CFS MODEL INDICATE THAT SSTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF APRIL. THE NECP CFS MODEL SUGGEST ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS... HOWEVER THE SMLR TOOL SUPPORTS THE FORECAST ONLY AT HONOLULU... SO A MODEST SHIFT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN FOR HONOLULU. THE CFS AND CCA INDICATE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER HAWAII. THESE TOOLS ALSO SUGGESTED ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MAM 2006 IN THEIR FORECAST ISSUED LAST MONTHS. GIVEN THAT THE OBSERVATIONS IN THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH HAVE SUPPORTED THE MODELS SIGNALS... THE FORECAST FROM THESE TOOLS WILL BE APPLIED TO THE APR 2006 OUTLOOK TO SHOW ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 72.6 0.5 A40 7.6 10.3 11.0 KAHULUI EC 74.3 0.6 A40 0.5 1.0 1.3 HONOLULU A40 76.0 0.5 A40 0.5 0.7 1.0 LIHUE EC 74.1 0.5 A40 1.6 2.7 3.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APR-MAY-JUN 2006 TO APR-MAY-JUN 2007 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC ARE BETWEEN .5 DEGREE C AND 1.5 DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL FROM ABOUT 160E TO 110 W. EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES FROM ABOUT 110 W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST VARY FROM -.5 TO +.5 DEGREES C... WITH THE MEAN SST ANOMALY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC (NINO 1+2 REGIONS) EDGING INTO POSITIVE VALUES IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO. THE BASIN WIDE UPPER LEVEL MEAN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REMAINS SIGNIFIGANTLY BELOW NORMAL... SUGGESTING THAT THE BELOW NORMAL SSTS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. ATMOSPHERIC INDICATIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION ARE TYPICAL OF LA NINA CONDITIONS... WITH SRTONGER-THAN-AVERAGE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC... SUPRESSED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR THE EQUATOR... AND ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC INCLUDING THE PHILIPPINES AND PARTS OF INDONESIA. MOST STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL SSTS BY THE SUMMER. THE CFS AND SMLR TOOLS SHOW ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS FOR AMJ 2006. SMLR EXTENDS THE EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT HONOLULU THROUGH JJA 2006. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN AMOUNTS FOR THE AMJ AND MJJ 2006 SEASONS AT ALL LOCATIONS...DUE MOSTLY TO CFS FORECASTS... BUT ALSO TO SOME SUPPORT FROM CCA AND CORRELATIONS BETWEEN JFM MEAN NINO 3.4 SSTS AND PRECIPITATION IN HAWAII. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE SST ANOMALIES IN THE ENSO-SENSITIVE REGIONS OF THE PACIFIC... AND THE LACK OF INDICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS TOOLS... THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR JJA 2006 AND BEYOND IS FOR EC AT ALL LOCATIONS. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2006 EC 73.9 0.4 A40 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2006 EC 75.0 0.4 A40 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2006 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2006 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2006 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2006 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2006 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2007 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2007 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2007 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2007 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2007 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2006 EC 75.8 0.6 A40 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2006 EC 77.3 0.6 A40 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2006 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2006 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2006 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2006 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2006 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2007 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2007 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2006 A40 77.7 0.4 A40 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2006 A45 79.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2006 A40 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2006 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2006 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2006 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2006 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2007 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2007 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2007 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2006 A40 75.9 0.4 A40 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2006 EC 77.5 0.4 A40 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2006 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2006 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2006 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2006 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2006 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2006 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2007 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2007 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY APRIL 20 2006. $$