PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU FEB 16 2006 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR 2006 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2006. FOR 2006 THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 1.88 INCHES (41 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 1.53 INCHES (57 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 0.74 INCHES (20 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 11.43 INCHES (118 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS AND CCA INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 2006. CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH 2006. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 72.1 0.6 EC 5.7 12.1 15.4 KAHULUI A40 73.2 0.6 EC 1.4 2.0 2.9 HONOLULU A40 74.5 0.5 EC 0.7 1.2 2.5 LIHUE A40 72.9 0.5 EC 1.5 2.5 3.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR-APR-MAY 2006 TO MAR-APR-MAY 2007 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. NEGATIVE EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES LESS THAN –0.5ºC WERE OBSERVED AT MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE DATE LINE AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST DURING JANUARY - WHILE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5ºC WERE RESTRICTED TO THE REGION BETWEEN INDONESIA AND 160ºE. THE OCEANIC COLD TONGUE STRENGTHENED IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND NEGATIVE SST DEPARTURES INCREASED IN MAGNITUDE IN THE NIÑO 4 AND NIÑO 3.4. ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER INDONESIA - THE PHILIPPINES AND NORTHERN AUSTRALIA - WHILE BELOW-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. MOST OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC THROUGH MID-2006. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RECENT COOLING TRENDS IN OBSERVED OCEANIC CONDITIONS SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF LA NINA CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 3-6 MONTHS. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS PREDICT A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM MAM 2006 TO AMJ 2006. NCEP CFS TOOLS ALSO INDICATES A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE PRECIPITATION FROM MAM TO AMJ 2006. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2006 A40 72.8 0.5 A40 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2006 A40 73.9 0.4 A40 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2006 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2006 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2006 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2006 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2006 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2006 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2007 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2007 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2007 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2007 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2006 A40 74.4 0.6 A40 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2006 A40 75.8 0.6 A40 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2006 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2006 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2006 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2006 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2006 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2006 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2007 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2006 A40 76.0 0.4 A40 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2006 A40 77.7 0.4 A40 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2006 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2006 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2006 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2006 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2006 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2006 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2007 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2007 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2006 A40 74.4 0.4 A40 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2006 A40 75.9 0.4 A40 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2006 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2006 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2006 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2006 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2006 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2006 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2006 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2007 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2007 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY MARCH 16 2006. $$