PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EST THU JAN 19 2006 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2006 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2006. FOR 2005 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 23.93 INCHES (60 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 15.61 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 15.91 INCHES (84 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 122.51 INCHES (97 PERCENT OF NORMAL). NCEP CFS INDICATES A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2006. CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR FEBRUARY 2006. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 71.6 0.5 EC 4.3 6.8 9.6 KAHULUI A40 72.1 0.6 EC 0.8 1.4 2.0 HONOLULU A40 73.1 0.5 EC 0.8 1.3 2.3 LIHUE A40 71.9 0.6 EC 1.2 1.7 3.2 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB-MAR-APR 2006 TO FEB-MAR-APR 2007 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5 DEG C WERE RESTRICTED TO THE REGION BETWEEN INDONESIA AND 165 E DURING DECEMBER - WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES LESS THAN –0.5 DEG C WERE OBSERVED AT MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE DATE LINE AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED IN THE REGION BETWEEN THE DATE LINE AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. DURING THE SAME PERIOD PERSISTENT STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL EQUATORIAL EASTERLY WINDS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. SINCE EARLY NOVEMBER THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF ENHANCED TROPICAL CONVECTION NEAR 130E AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTION NEAR THE DATE LINE. THE PRESENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LA NIÑA CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. MOST OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC THROUGH MID-2006. CURRENT CONDITIONS (STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC) AND RECENT COOLING TRENDS IN OBSERVED OCEANIC CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF LA NINA CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 3-6 MONTHS. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS PREDICT A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM FMA 2006 TO MJJ 2006. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS ALSO INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM FMA TO MAM 2006. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2006 A40 72.1 0.4 A40 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2006 A40 72.8 0.5 A40 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2006 A40 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2006 A40 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2006 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2006 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2006 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2006 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2006 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2007 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2007 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2007 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2006 A40 73.2 0.5 A40 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2006 A40 74.4 0.6 A40 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2006 A40 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2006 A40 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2006 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2006 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2006 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2006 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2006 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2007 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2006 A40 74.5 0.4 A40 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2006 A40 76.0 0.4 A40 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2006 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2006 A40 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2006 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2006 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2006 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2006 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2006 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2007 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2006 A40 73.1 0.4 A40 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2006 A40 74.4 0.4 A40 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2006 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2006 A40 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2006 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2006 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2006 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2006 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2006 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2006 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2007 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 16 2006. $$