PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EST THU JAN 19 2006 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE SEASONAL CLIMATE INCLUDE 1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH TOGETHER MAKE UP EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO - 2) TRENDS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10 OR 15 YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 1971-2000) - 3) TROPICAL 30-60-DAY OSCILLATION- WHICH MAY AFFECT CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN A SEASON - 4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION - OR NAO - AND 5) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS... AS SSTS IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE. HOWEVER SINCE THIS IS A WEAK LATE DEVELOPING EPISODE... IT IS NOT CLEAR IF TYPICAL LA NINA IMPACTS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL (FMA) 2006 CALLS FOR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR-AVERAGE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA WESTWARD THROUGH WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. ELSEWHERE THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF WARMER-THAN... COOLER-THAN OR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING FMA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN HAWAII. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR FMA CALLS FOR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND ALSO IN THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS A CONSISTENT RESPONSE TO WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS AND IS PRESENT TO SOME DEGREE AMONG MOST SEASONAL FORECAST TOOLS... PARTICULARLY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. ELSEWHERE THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEING WETTER-THAN... DRIER-THAN... OR NEAR-MEDIAN DURING FMA. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER HAWAII. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS. SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MORE THAN .5 DEG C BELOW NORMAL FROM THE DATE LINE TO 100W... WITH MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 175W AND 120W MORE THAN 1 C BELOW NORMAL. SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR WEST OF 170E REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. BELOW NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE TO OVER 150 METERS DEPTH. ABOVE NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC ALSO EXTEND TO DEPTHS OF 150 METERS OR MORE... SO THE PATTERN OF SSTS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT MONTH. MJO ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEAK. SSTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN MUCH OF THE TROPICAL AND NORTH ATLANTIC. SSTS SURROUNDING FLORIDA AND UP THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTARE WELL BELOW NORMAL... WHILE SSTS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE NEAR NORMAL. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS THE CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL MODELS USED AT CPC SUGGEST THAT SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION (BETWEEN 5N AND 5S AND 170W TO 120W) ARE CLOSE TO THEIR MINIMUM VALUES. THE 3-MONTH SEASONAL MEAN NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWEST IN DJF 2005-06... AT AROUND -.4 DEG C... INCREASING TO WITHIN .1 DEG C BY MAM 2006 AND REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO ZERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. HOWEVER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE LOWER THAN THE LOWEST FORECAST VALUE... -0.8 C LAST WEEK... SO THAT THE VALIDITY OF THESE FORECASTS IS QUESTIONABLE. THE OCEANIC NINO INDEX FOR OCTOBER - DECEMBER IS -0.4 AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS INDEX WILL BE MORE THAN -0.5 FOR NOVEMBER - JANUARY WHICH WILL MEET THE MINIMUM NOAA THRESHOLD FOR LA NINA CONDITIONS. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS THE GRADIENT OF SSTS IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PACIFIC... IS EXPECTED TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONGER THAN AVERAGE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. CLIMATE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO THESE CONDITION IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF A WEAK LA NINA. THE MODELS HAVE DONE REASONABLY WELL IN REPRODUCING THE CIRCULATION PATTERNS OBSERVED THUS FAR THIS SEASON... AND THEREFORE THE CLIMATE MODELS ARE GIVEN MORE WEIGHT IN OUTLOOKS FOR FMA AND MAM 2006 THAN THEY WOULD FROM LONG-TERM SKILL CONSIDERATIONS ALONE. THE OUTLOOK FOR FMA 2006 THROUGH MAM 2006 IS BASED ON THE CLIMATE MODELS... THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE FROM IRI... THE CFS... AND CDC TOOLS BASED ON CLIMATE MODELS... AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS STATISTICAL TOOLS... INCLUDING CCA... ECCA... SMLR AND OCN. FORECASTS FROM AMJ THROUGH JAS 2006 REFLECT THE CONSOLIDATED TEMPERATURE PRODUCT... WHICH PRODUCES A SKILL WEIGHTED MIX OF CFS... CCA... SMLR... AND OCN. THE OUTLOOK FOR ASO 2006 THROUGH FMA 2007 ARE BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF CCA... SMLR... AND OCN... ALTHOUGH OCN IS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE BEYOND JAS. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - FMA 2006 TO FMA 2007 TEMPERATURE: TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR FMA 2006 HAVE BEEN REVISED FROM THE CORRESPONDING OUTLOOK ISSUED LAST MONTH... WITH THE OUTLOOK NOW FAVORING NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. INDICATIONS IN THIS REGION FROM THE STATISTICAL TOOLS FAVORED NEAR-AVERAGE... WHILE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA CONDITIONS. THE ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST ARE MAINLY DUE TO TRENDS... WITH SOME ENHANCEMENTS IN CONFIDENCE DUE TO SUPPORT FROM THE CFS AND OTHER MODELS IN THE SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN TEXAS. THE OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA WAS ALSO REVISED FROM ABOVE AVERAGE TO EQUAL CHANCES DUE TO THE OBSERVED BELOW NORMAL SSTS CURRENTLY SURROUNDING THE STATE. THE OUTLOOKS FOR MAM AND AMJ 2006 WERE ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY REVISED... WITH REGIONS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM EASTERN WASHINGTON TO WESTERN MINNESOTA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. IN MOST STATISTICAL TOOLS AND ALL DYNAMICAL FORECASTS USED HERE. OUTLOOKS FOR MJJ 2006 ND BEYOND ARE MAINLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ISSUED LAST MONTH... EXCEPT FOR INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING JAS... ASO AND NDJ TO REFLECT THE INCREASED EMPHASIS PLACED ON TRENDS. PRECIPITATION: THERE IS WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS AMONG DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER LARGE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FOR FMA 2006. CCA... ECCA AND SMLR FORECASTS ALSO SUPPORT THE FORECAST FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE STRONGEST INDICATIONS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST... IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS... AND IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. A FOREAST OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE OHIO VALLEY... WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA CONDITIONS AND IS EVIDENT IN SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST. DYNAMICAL MODELS PERSIST THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO MAM 2006... AS WELL AS WETTER THAN MEDIAN CONDITIONS IN THE OHIO VALLEY... AND THESE INDICATIONS WERE INCORPORATED INTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR AMJ 2006 AND BEYOND... WHERE DIFFERENT FROM EQUAL CHANCES... PRIMARILY REFLECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS. NOTE - AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES). FORECASTER: M HALPERT GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS: ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING COMPARED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NOT EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANNUAL CYCLE - AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLIMATE STATE VARIABLES - T - P - SST- WIND - AND OTHERS DISPLAY A REGULAR VARIATION WHICH FOLLOWS THAT OF THE ELEVATION OF THE SUN IN THE SKY. A GRAPH OF THE 30 YEAR AVERAGE OF A VARIABLE FOR EACH DAY OF THE YEAR VERSUS DATE SHOWS A WAVE-FORM WHICH - FOR T AT DES MOINES FOR EXAMPLE - RANGES SMOOTHLY FROM LOWEST VALUES IN THE WINTER TO HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SUMMER. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE (USUALLY 30 YEARS) FOR THE LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE (AT SEA LEVEL) OR 500-HPA HEIGHT (IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE) BETWEEN THE NORTHERN POLAR REGION AND MIDDLE LATITUDES. WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE (BELOW) NORMAL AT HIGH LATITUDES AND BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL AT MIDDLE LATITUDES - THE AO IS DEFINED AS NEGATIVE (POSITIVE) AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MIDDLE LATITUDES - INCLUDING THE CONUS. CA - CONSTRUCTED ANALOG - A LINEAR COMBINATION OF PAST OBSERVED ANOMALY PATTERNS SUCH THAT THE COMBINATION IS AS CLOSE AS DESIRED TO THE INITIAL STATE. A FORECAST IS OBTAINED BY PERSISTING THE WEIGHTS ASSIGNED TO EACH YEAR IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD AND LINEARLY COMBINING THE STATES FOLLOWING THE INITIAL TIME IN THE HISTORICAL YEARS. CAS - CONSTRUCTED ANALOG SOIL MOISTURE PREDICTION TECHNIQUE. CCA - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS - A TECHNIQUE WHICH PREDICTS THE STATUS OF U.S. T AND P FOR SOME FUTURE TARGET SEASON USING THE MOST RECENT 4 NON- OVERLAPPING SEASONAL OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL PACIFIC SST - CIRCULATION AND U.S. T OR P TO CHARACTERIZE THE RECENT BEHAVIOR OF THE CLIMATE - AND PAST OBSERVATIONS TO PLACE RECENT BEHAVIOR INTO A HISTORICAL CONTEXT. CFS - CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM - A FULLY-COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE FORECAST SYSTEM WHICH USES NO ADJUSTMENTS TO OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE FLUXES IN POST- PROCESSING (A ONE-TIER SYSTEM) DEVELOPED AT THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION. CLIMATOLOGY - THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE OF A VARIABLE - LIKE TEMPERATURE - AT A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR. CON - A FORECAST TOOL WHICH COMBINES THE CCA - THE OCN - THE SMLR AND A 15-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM THE CFS - USING THE KNOWN SKILL OF THE VARIOUS TOOLS TO FORM A WEIGHTED AVERAGE. THIS TOOL HELPS TO REDUCE THE UNCERTAINTY WHICH FORECASTERS CONFRONT WHEN THEY TRY TO SUBJECTIVELY COMBINE FORECAST TOOLS. CON HAS BEEN USED IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THIS TIME. VERIFICATION OF CON FOR FORECASTS FROM THE 1995-2005 PERIOD INDICATES THAT IT IMPROVES TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVER THE CONUS. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM CON HAVE NOT YET BEEN VERIFIED AND IT IS - THEREFORE - USED MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVELY THAN IT IS FOR TEMPERATURE. . . . . . . . . CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES DYNAMICAL MODEL - A PREDICTION METHOD WHICH USES EQUATIONS DESCRIBING THE PHYSICAL BEHAVIOR OF A SYSTEM AND A COMPREHENSIVE SET OF CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF THE VALUES OF THE VARIABLES DESCRIBING THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SYSTEM (INITIAL CONDITIONS) TO PREDICT THE VALUES OF THOSE VARIABLES A SHORT TIME-STEP IN THE FUTURE. THOSE VALUES ARE - IN TURN - USED AS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR A SUBSEQUENT PREDICTION - AND SO ON - UNTIL THE DESIRED FUTURE PREDICTION TIME IS REACHED. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. EC - EQUAL CHANCES - THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE DETERMINED AND THE EXPECTED LIKELIHOODS OF ABOVE - NORMAL AND BELOW DO NOT DIFFER FROM THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL ODDS OF 33 1/3% EACH. EC REPLACES CL. ECCA - ENSEMBLE CCA. A MULTI-VARIATE STATISTICAL FORECAST BASED ON THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE CFS MODEL FORECAST USING THE MOST RECENT FORECAST AS THE PREDICTOR. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE ENSO - ACRONYM FOR EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION GCM - GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL - A GENERIC TERM APPLIED TO GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS. ITCZ - INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - A LINE WHERE THE SOUTHEASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONVERGE - CHARACTERIZED BY ENHANCED CONVECTION. IT MAY BE IN EITHER THE NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE - AND OCCASIONALLY A DOUBLE ITCZ MAY BE SEEN IN BOTH HEMISPHERES NOT FAR FROM THE EQUATOR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A DISTURBANCE IN TROPICAL CONVECTION - PRECIPITATION - WIND AND PRESSURE. MJO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS ARE ENHANCED ONLY IN REGIONS WHERE SSTS ARE VERY WARM - E.G. INDIAN OCEAN AND WEST PACIFIC. THE PRESSURE AND WIND DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH MJO IS OBSERVED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST COMPLETELY AROUND THE GLOBAL TROPICS IN ABOUT 30 TO 60 DAYS. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN - WHICH MAY BE CONSIDERED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO. NOTE THAT THE STATUS OF THE AO/NAO AND OTHER SLOWLY VARYING CIRCULATION MODES - WHILE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION REGIMES OVER THE U.S. - ARE UNPREDICTABLE BEYOND A WEEK OR TWO AHEAD AT BEST BY CURRENT TECHNOLOGY AND ARE NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED IN OUR FORECAST PROCESS AS RELIABLE PREDICTORS. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OCN - OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS - A FORECAST BASED ON PERSISTING THE AVERAGE OF THE LAST 10 YEARS FOR TEMPERATURE AND THE LAST 15 YEARS FOR PRECIPITATION. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. QBO - QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION - AN OSCILLATION OF THE WIND IN THE LOWER STRATOSPHERE BETWEEN EASTERLY AND WESTERLY WHICH REVERSES ON A NEARLY- 2 YEAR TIME SCALE. QBO IS ONE OF THE MOST REGULAR OSCILLATIONS KNOWN. SMLR - SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION - A TECHNIQUE WHICH SELECTS THE BEST SET OF PREDICTORS - FITTING THEM TO THE OBSERVATIONS TO CREATE EQUATIONS WHICH CAN BE USED TO MAKE PREDICTIONS. SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS - PREDICTIONS BASED MAINLY ON LARGE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SETS. CCA - OCN - SMLR - CAS - CA ARE EXAMPLES OF THESE. TELECONNECTIONS - THESE GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS OVER A LARGE AREA - LIKE THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - FOR A GIVEN TIME OF THE YEAR. THE POINTS ON THE MAP USUALLY CONSIST OF A SET OF MORE OR LESS EVENLY SPACED LOCATIONS CALLED GRID POINTS. TREND - AT A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AVERAGE OF THE MOST RECENT 10 (15) YEARS OF OBSERVATIONS OF T (P) AND THE CLIMATOLOGY. WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. STARTING WITH THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK RELEASED IN FEBRUARY, 2006, THE GLOSSARY OF TERMS WILL NO LONGER APPEAR WITH THIS MESSAGE. INSTEAD, TERMS THAT ARE IN THE GLOSSARY WILL BE LINKED TO THEIR DEFINITION. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL - AND THE FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/DISC.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) INFORMATION ON THE FORMULATION AND SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/FORECASTS.HTML (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS) NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU FEB 16 2006. 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 17, 2001 FORECAST RELEASE $$