PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU NOV 17 2005 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DEC 2005 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2005. FOR 2005 THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 22.42 INCHES (74 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 13.47 INCHES (102 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 14.01 INCHES (102 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 104.52 INCHES (104 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATIONS IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW FOR TEMPERATURES. NCEP CFS INDICATES A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE PRECIPITATION FOR HONOLUL AND LIHUE IN DECEMBER 2005. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 72.4 0.5 EC 5.8 8.3 12.0 KAHULUI EC 73.6 0.5 EC 1.3 2.3 2.9 HONOLULU EC 74.5 0.7 A40 1.1 1.5 2.9 LIHUE EC 73.2 0.5 A40 2.2 3.6 4.7 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DEC-JAN-FEB 2006 TO DEC-JAN-FEB 2007 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE PRESENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES ARE CONSISTENT WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5ºC WERE FOUND BETWEEN INDONESIA AND 175ºW - WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES LESS THAN –0.5ºC WERE OBSERVED AT MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 130ºW AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. DURING THE LAST THREE MONTHS SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES DECREASED - ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - AND THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI) INCREASED. DURING THE SAME PERIOD PERSISTENT STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL EQUATORIAL EASTERLY WINDS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC - WHILE NEAR-AVERAGE PATTERNS OF CONVECTION AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCCURRED OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE PRESENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES ARE CONSISTENT WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE SPREAD OF THE MOST RECENT STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATES SOME UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER – THE STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND THE DECREASING SST ANOMALIES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SUPPORT EITHER A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS OR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LA NIÑA CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 6-9 MONTHS. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS PREDICT A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM DJF 2006 TO FMA 2006. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS ALSO INDICAT A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE PRECIPITATION FROM DJF TO FMA 2006. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2006 A40 72.0 0.4 A40 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2006 A40 71.8 0.4 A40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2006 A40 72.1 0.4 A40 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2006 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2006 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2006 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2006 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2006 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2006 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2006 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2006 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2007 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2006 A40 72.5 0.5 A40 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2006 A40 72.4 0.5 A40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2006 A40 73.2 0.5 A40 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2006 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2006 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2006 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2006 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2006 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2006 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2006 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2006 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2006 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2006 A40 74.5 0.4 A40 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2006 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2006 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2006 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2006 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2006 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2006 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2006 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2006 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2006 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2007 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2006 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2006 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2006 A40 73.1 0.4 A40 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2006 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2006 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2006 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2006 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2006 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2006 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2006 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2007 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY DECEMBER 15 2005. $$