PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST WED NOV 30 2005
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30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2005

THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS FOR THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN CURRENTLY
FAVOR A NEUTRAL ENSO CLASSIFICATION... WITH NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO 
PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER 2005.   SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR IN 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE MORE THAN .5 DEG C BELOW NORMAL FROM ABOUT 140W TO NEAR 
THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST... WITH SOME REGIONS ALMOST 2 DEG C BELOW NORMAL.  
SSTS FROM 140 W TO THE DATELINE ARE WITHIN .5 DEG C OF NORMAL WHILE SSTS ALONG 
THE EQUATOR WEST OF THE DATELINE AVERAGE JUST OVER .5 DEG C ABOVE NORMAL.  
BELOW NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE 
TO OVER 150 METERS DEPTH... SO SSTS IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE 
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER.  THE GRADIENT OF 
SSTS IN THE PACIFIC ALONG THE EQUATOR... BELOW NORMAL SSTS IN THE EAST AND NEAR 
TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PACIFIC... IS EXPECTED TO HELP 
MAINTAIN STRONGER THAN AVERAGE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL 
PACIFIC.  MJO ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEAK AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY A MAJOR 
ROLE IN SHAPING THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER NORTH AMERICA IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. 

THE ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS TO THE ENHANCED EASTERLIES IN THE EQUATORIAL 
PACIFIC SLIGHTLY FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THIS IS ALSO 
INDICATED BY A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG DYNAMIC MODELS FOR DECEMBER THROUGH 
FEBRUARY.  FORECASTS FROM THE GFS FOR THE FIRST 14 DAYS TO A LARGE DEGREE 
SUPPORT THE OUTLOOK FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM ARIZONA TO 
CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FAVORS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE 
GULF COAST INTO FLORIDA... WHICH MAKES THE DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED IN THE 
EARLIER OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER LESS LIKELY... SO EC IS GIVEN.  AMPLE PRECIP-
ITATION IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL IN THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF THE MONTH 
ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IN 
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... FAVORING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION MONTHLY TOTALS IN 
THOSE AREAS.   

THE GFS AND ECMWF EXTENDED RANGE WEATHER FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A
NEGATIVE AO CIRCULATION PATTERN WILL PREDOMINATE IN THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF THE
MONTH... RESULTING IN A COLD START TO THE MONTH IN MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.  
THE 30-DAY CFS MODEL OUTLOOK ALSO SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN U.S... ADDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL 
CONUS.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ON 
THE CIRCULATION PATTERNS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND ALASKA BEYOND THE FIRST 
WEEK OF DECEMBER... AND NO SIGNIFICANT INDICATORS FROM CLIMATE PREDICTION 
TOOLS... SO EC IS INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND ALASKA EXCEPT FOR 
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE TRENDS AND INDICATIONS FROM CCA SHOW ELEVATED 
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FORECASTER: D. UNGER 


NOTES -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).

THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JAN 2006... WILL BE RELEASED ON THU 
DEC 15 2005.
  
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.


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