PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST MON OCT 31 2005
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2005

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE... AS ARE THE PATTERNS OF CONVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS.  FORECASTS
OF OCEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC INDICATE THAT NEAR-AVERAGE 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS REGION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEASON.  
THEREFORE FORCING FROM THE TROPICS DUE TO THE ENSO CYCLE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY
A ROLE IN THE CLIMATE DURING NOVEMBER.

THE UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER IS BASED ON THE STATISTICAL TOOLS CCA 
- OCN AND SMLR... WITH CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS DURING THE
FIRST TWO WEEKS OF THE MONTH.  FORECAST TOOLS INDICATE SOME CONSENSUS FOR ABOVE
-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONTINENTAL U.S. AND ALASKA.  THE 
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK FOR ALASKA SHOWS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST
TWO WEEKS OF THE MONTH... WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THIS REGION BEING SCALED BACK 
TO A FORECAST OF EC.  THE STATISTICAL INDICATIONS OF WARM IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ARE SUPPORTED IN THE SHORT TERM... AS ARE INDICATIONS OF ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES EXTENDING FROM THIS REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  

LONG-LEAD INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION WERE EITHER WEAK, NON-EXISTANT OR 
CONFLICTING. HOWEVER SHORT TERM INDICATIONS ARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NORTHWARD TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.  THIS
PATTERN WITH A VERY STRONG ZONAL JET IMPACTING THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE QUITE
STABLE IN THE SHORT TERM AND HAS RESULTED IN THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.     
  
FORECASTER: M. HALPERT 


NOTES -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).

THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR DEC... WILL BE RELEASED ON THU NOV 17 2005.  
  
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.


$$