PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCT 2005 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER 2005. FOR 2005 THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 18.77 INCHES (81 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 10.97 INCHES (107 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 13.71 INCHES (112 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 70.93 INCHES (87 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS GIVE NO INDICATIONS IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR ALL STATIONS IN OCTOBER 2005. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 75.8 0.5 EC 8.1 9.6 10.5 KAHULUI EC 78.3 0.5 EC 0.4 0.6 1.0 HONOLULU EC 80.0 0.5 EC 0.3 1.4 1.9 LIHUE EC 78.1 0.4 EC 2.0 3.2 4.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCT-NOV-DEC 2005 TO OCT-NOV-DEC 2006 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE SST DEPARTURES IN THE NIŅO 3, NIŅO 3.4, AND NIŅO 1+2 REGIONS WERE NEAR ZERO. THE GENERAL DECREASE IN SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES - OBSERVED DURING THE LAST THREE MONTHS - HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE EASTERLY WINDS AND NEAR-AVERAGE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE MOST RECENT STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER - CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RECENT OBSERVED TRENDS SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 3-6 MONTHS. CFS AND CCA PREDICT A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM NDJ 2005 TO FMA 2006. CFS AND CCA ALSO INDICAT A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE PRECIPITATION FROM DJF TO FMA 2006. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2005 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2005 A40 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2006 A40 72.0 0.4 A35 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2006 A40 71.8 0.4 A40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2006 A40 72.1 0.4 A40 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2006 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2006 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2006 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2006 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2006 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2006 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2006 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2005 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2005 A40 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2006 A40 72.5 0.5 A35 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2006 A40 72.4 0.5 A40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2006 A40 73.2 0.5 A40 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2006 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2006 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2006 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2006 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2006 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2006 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2006 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2005 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2005 A40 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2006 A40 73.5 0.4 A35 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2006 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2006 A40 74.5 0.4 A40 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2006 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2006 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2006 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2006 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2006 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2006 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2006 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2006 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2005 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2005 A40 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2006 A40 72.4 0.4 A35 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2006 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2006 A40 73.1 0.4 A40 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2006 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2006 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2006 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2006 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2006 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2006 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 20 2005. $$