PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT FRI SEPTEMBER 30 2005
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30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCTOBER 2005

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE... AS ARE THE PATTERNS OF CONVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS.  FORECASTS
OF OCEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC INDICATE THAT NEAR-AVERAGE 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS REGION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEASON.  
THEREFORE FORCING FROM THE TROPICS DUE TO THE ENSO CYCLE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY
A ROLE IN THE CLIMATE DURING OCTOBER.

THE LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER IS BASED ON THE STATISTICAL TOOLS CCA - OCN
AND SMLR... WITH SOME CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO THE MONTHLY FORECAST FROM THE
CFS...AND ON THE MOST RECENT 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS.  MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE UPDATED OCTOBER OUTLOOK BY
AN EXPANDED AREA OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERTURES EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THE CCA... AND 
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OCN - INDICATED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPTERATURES OVER COASTAL 
ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ABNORMALLY WARM 
SSTS ALONG THE SOUTH ALASKAN COAST AND IN THE BERING SEA.

THE ONLY STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES FROM
THE OCN IS WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS FOR FLORIDA.  THE SMLR HAS A FEW AREAS
WHICH ARE MARGINALLY SIGNIFICANT...BUT THEY WERE DISREGARDED SINCE THERE WAS A 
LACK OF SUPPORT BY THE OTHER TOOLS.  THE CCA DOES NOT INDICATE ANY AREA OF 
SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES..BUT THE SIGN OF THE DEPARTURES OVER FLORIDA AGREED WITH
THE OCN...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OUTLOOK.  A WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE FORECAST FOR
FLORIDA IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE HURRICANE
SEASON.  RECENT EXTENDED-RANGE OUTLOOKS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE DRY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. THUS AN AREA OF DRIER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THAT REGION IN THE UPDATED OCTOBER OUTLOOK. NO
AREAS WERE DEEMED TO BE  SIGNIFICANT OVER ALASKA AND THE ENTIRE STATE WAS LEFT
AS EC.     
  
FORECASTER: V. KOUSKY 


NOTES -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).

THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR NOV... WILL BE RELEASED ON THU OCT 20 2005.  
  
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.


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