PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT WED AUGUST 31 2005
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
ZERO-LEAD 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEPTEMBER 2005

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE NEAR NORMAL RANGE... AS ARE CONVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS.  MJO
ACTIVITY HAS ALSO GENERALLY BEEN WEAK TO INACTIVE DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
FORECASTS OF OCEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC INDICATE
THAT NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS REGION FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEASON.  THEREFORE FORCING FROM THE TROPICS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY A
ROLE IN THE CLIMATE DURING SEPTEMBER.

THE LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER IS BASED ON THE STATISTICAL TOOLS CCA - 
OCN AND SMLR COMBINED WITH THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FOR 8-14 DAYS.  ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED BY THE OCN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST - 
WHILE THE 8-14-DAY FORECAST INDICATES THE LOWEST TERCILE IN THE SOUTHEAST.  
SINCE FORECASTS OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE ARE KNOWN TO HAVE GENERALLY LOW 
SKILL - INDICATIONS FOR THAT CATEGORY ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT BY REDUCING THE 
AREA COVERED BY OR THE PROBABILITIES FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY.  THE CCA 
ALSO INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHWEST - IN AGREEMENT 
WITH OCN AND THE 8-14-DAY FORECAST.  WHILE BOTH CCA AND OCN INDICATE ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SOUTH FLORIDA - THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST INDICATES BELOW - 
SO THAT REGION ISINDICATED AS EC.  THE CCA... AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OCN 
INDICATED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPTERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA... WHICH 
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ABNORMALLY WARM SSTS ALONG THE SOUTH ALASKAN COAST AND BY 
THE 8-14-DAY FORECAST - WHICH PROMPTED INCREASING THE AREA COVERED BY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO INCLUDE MORE OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA.

PRECIPITATION INDICATIONS FROM THE STATISTICAL TOOLS AND THE 8-14-DAY FORECAST
ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON PREDICTING THE ABOVE-MEDIAN CATEGORY IN THE 
SOUTHEAST - BELOW-MEDIAN IN MUCH OF THE WEST AND ABOVE-MEDIAN IN SOUTHERN 
ALASKA. 

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR HAWAII MADE AUG 18 REMAINS IN EFFECT.    
  
FORECASTER: E. OLENIC 
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .         .


NOTES -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).

THIS FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED ON THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 15.	
THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR OCT... WILL BE RELEASED ON THU SEP 15 2005.  
  
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.


$$