PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2005 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL 2005 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JULY 2005. FOR 2005 THROUGH THE END OF MAY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 15.81 INCHES (91 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 10.30 INCHES (116 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 11.85 INCHES (108 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 44.35 INCHES (83 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN JULY 2005. CCA and NCEP cFS MODEL PREDICT A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMORL FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 76.0 0.5 B40 6.5 9.4 11.2 KAHULUI A40 78.9 0.6 B40 0.2 0.3 0.5 HONOLULU A40 80.8 0.5 B40 0.2 0.4 0.4 LIHUE A40 78.9 0.4 B40 1.3 1.8 2.2 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL-AUG-SEP 2005 TO JUL-AUG-SEP 2006 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES DECREASED BY MORE THAN 2°C IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING MAY. NEGATIVE EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED IN MOST AREAS BETWEEN 120°W AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THERE ARE ALSO A DECREASE IN THE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THESE FEATURES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPWELLING PHASE OF AN EASTWARD-PROPAGATING KELVIN WAVE. NO ADDITIONAL KELVIN WAVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED - SINCE THE MJO HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS AND THE OVERALL PATTERNS OF TROPICAL CONVECTION - LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR AVERAGE. A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NORTHERN SUMMER FALL. CCA - OCN SMT AND NCEP CFS INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM JAS 2005 TO ASO 2005. THESE TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATIONS IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW FOR PRECIPITATION . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2005 A40 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2005 A40 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2005 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2005 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2005 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2006 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2006 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2006 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2006 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2006 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2006 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2006 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2005 A40 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2005 A40 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2005 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2005 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2005 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2006 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2006 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2006 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2006 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2006 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2006 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2005 A40 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2005 A40 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2005 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2005 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2006 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2006 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2006 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2006 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2006 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2006 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2005 A40 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2005 A40 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2005 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2005 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2005 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2006 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2006 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2006 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2006 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JULY 21 2005. $$