PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2005 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO ABOUT 120W... AND ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE EQUATOR WESTWARD OF ABOUT 130 W. SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE ALSO QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL... INDICATING THAT NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG BOTH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL ENSO PREDICTION MODELS FOR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY 2006. SSTS THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... AND THIS WILL IMPACT THE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION PREDICTION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SUMMER AND FALL. THE OUTLOOKS FOR JAS 2005 THROUGH DJF 2005-06 ARE BASED ON A WIDE ARRAY OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS. OUTLOOKS FOR JFM 2006 AND BEYOND ARE BASED MAINLY ON TRENDS WITH SOME INPUT FROM STATISTICAL TOOLS. WITH ENSO EXPECTED TO BE IN ITS NEUTRAL PHASE THROUGH AT LEAST SPRING 2006... THERE ARE NO STRONG PREDICTIVE SIGNALS FOR CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN THIS SET OF FORECASTS. THE MOST CONFIDENT SIGNALS ARE FOR TEMPERATURES AT THE FEW SEASONS AND LOCATIONS WHERE TRENDS ARE STRONG. A CONSENSUS OF GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON ... FAVORING DRY SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE GREAT BASIN FOR JAS 2005. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS VERY SLIGHTLY FAVORED BY DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN JAS 2005. THE EXPECTED ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS NO RELIABLE WAY TO PREDICT THE FORMATION AND MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORMS BEYOND ABOUT A WEEK... AND THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IN THE SOUTHEAST REFLECTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS RECEIVED IN ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASONS IN THE PAST... AS WELL AS RECENT TRENDS IN FLORIDA. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK PRIMARILY REFLECT RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH SOME REVISIONS IN THE FIRST FEW LEAD TIMES BASED ON STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL TOOLS. WARMER THAN NORMAL SSTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND ALASKA CONTRUBUTE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ALASKA FOR JAS AND ASO 2005. . . . . . . . . BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR ARE ABOUT .5 DEGREES C BELOW NORMAL FROM THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO ABOUT 120W... AND ARE ABOUT .5 DEGREES C ABOVE NORMAL FROM 130W TO INDONESIA. COOLER THAN NORMAL SSTS NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING KELVIN WAVE THAT WAS TRIGGERED BY STRONG MJO ACTIVITY IN THE SPRING. MJO ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY IN THE PAST MONTH... AND THIS WILL HELP STABILIZE SSTS IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 200 METERS THROUGHOUT THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORAL PACIFIC ARE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL... AND ARE IN MARKED CONTRAST TO THE POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OBSERVED A FEW MONTHS AGO. THE CURRENT WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC SUGGEST SSTS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS SUCH AS TRADE WINDS AND CONVECTION IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE ALSO CLOSE TO NORMAL AND SUGGEST... TOGETHER WITH THE SSTS THAT NEUTRAL ENSO WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UNUSUALLY WARM SSTS COVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE DEVELOPMENT REGION FOR ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE DECADAL SIGNAL TOWARD ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASONS. THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS SUGGEST A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. . . . . . . . . PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS THE CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL MODELS USED AT CPC SHOWS SEASONAL MEAN NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES REMAINING CLOSE TO LONG TERM AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. THE PREDICTION FOR NINO 3.4 SSTS FROM MOST MODELS FOR THIS SUMMER HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD IN THE PAST MONTH. THE MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE CFS MODEL ARE DISTINCTLY COOLER THAN LAST MONTHS PREDICTION FOR THE SAME TIME PERIODS. THUS THE CHANCES FOR WEAK WARM ENSO CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS YEAR... AS WAS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS LAST MONTH... ARE LOWER IN VIEW OF MORE RECENT DATA. A CONSENSUS OF LOCALLY RUN PREDICTION TOOLS FOR THE NINO 3.4 REGION SHOWS SSTS HOLDING STEADY AT AROUND .3 DEGREES C ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF 2006. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS THE OUTLOOK FOR JAS 2005 THROUGH DJF 2005-06 IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE FROM IRI... THE CFS... AND STATISTICAL TOOLS... INCLUDING CCA... SMLR AND OCN. CAS AND ECCA WERE ALSO USED FOR JJA. OCN AND CCA ARE THE PRIMARY TOOLS USED FROM JFM THROUGH JAS 2006. . . . . . . . . PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JAS 2005 TO JAS 2006 TEMPERATURE: THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG TOOLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS AREA WAS EXTENDED INTO TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST DUE TO INDICATIONS FROM THE CCA AND ECCA TOOLS. THERE IS A BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG TOOLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA... WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASED BY WARM SSTS ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. CCA AND OCN SHOW GOOD CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S... BUT WERE COUNTERACTED BY INDICATIONS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE CFS... THUS CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WAS REDUCED FROM THE OUTLOOK RELEASED LAST MONTH AND PROBABILITIES ARE NOW ONLY MARGINALLY DIFFERENT FROM CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN. MOST MODELS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WARM CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH ASO. STRONG INDICATIONS FROM TRENDS FAVOR PERSISTENTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING ALL SEASONS... BUT THESE ARE AT THEIR WEAKEST DURING OND WHEN THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS AT ITS SMALLEST. FROM SON 2005 THROUGH JAS 2006 OCN AND CCA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST TOOLS USED AND REFLECT PRIMARILY THE INFLUENCE OF TRENDS. NOTABLY... ALASKA IS PREDICTED TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM DJF 2005-06 THROUGH JJA 2006. CCA CONTINUES TO PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FOR DJF 2005-06 THROUGH JFM 2006... SO CONFIDENCE IN LAST MONTHS PREDICTION IN THOSE REGIONS HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THIS OUTLOOK. . . . . . . . . PRECIPITATION: THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONSENSUS AMONG DYNAMIC MODELS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S FOR JAS 2005... AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON TO BE WEAK FOLLOWING YEARS WITH HEAVY SNOWPACK SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE ARE CONTINUED HINTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR JAS AND ASO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DUE TO THE EXPECTED ENHANCED TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THE AREAS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM OND 2005 THROUGH DJF 2005-06 COME FROM OCN. THERE ARE NO RELIABLE TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION EVIDENT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY BETWEEN JFM AND JJA 2006... AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY CLEAR-CUT INDICATIONS FROM ENSO... THE PRECIPITATION MAPS FOR THOSE SEASONS ARE LEFT WITH EC EVERYWHERE. TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL IN FLORIDA... AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST FOR JAS 2006. NOTE - AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES). . . . . . . . . FORECASTER: D. UNGER GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS: ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING COMPARED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NOT EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANNUAL CYCLE - AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLIMATE STATE VARIABLES - T - P - SST- WIND - AND OTHERS DISPLAY A REGULAR VARIATION WHICH FOLLOWS THAT OF THE ELEVATION OF THE SUN IN THE SKY. A GRAPH OF THE 30 YEAR AVERAGE OF A VARIABLE FOR EACH DAY OF THE YEAR VERSUS DATE SHOWS A WAVE-FORM WHICH - FOR T AT DES MOINES FOR EXAMPLE - RANGES SMOOTHLY FROM LOWEST VALUES IN THE WINTER TO HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SUMMER. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE (USUALLY 30 YEARS) FOR THE LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE (AT SEA LEVEL) OR 500-HPA HEIGHT (IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE) BETWEEN THE NORTHERN POLAR REGION AND MIDDLE LATITUDES. WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE (BELOW) NORMAL AT HIGH LATITUDES AND BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL AT MIDDLE LATITUDES - THE AO IS DEFINED AS NEGATIVE (POSITIVE) AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MIDDLE LATITUDES - INCLUDING THE CONUS. CA - CONSTRUCTED ANALOG - A LINEAR COMBINATION OF PAST OBSERVED ANOMALY PATTERNS SUCH THAT THE COMBINATION IS AS CLOSE AS DESIRED TO THE INITIAL STATE. A FORECAST IS OBTAINED BY PERSISTING THE WEIGHTS ASSIGNED TO EACH YEAR IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD AND LINEARLY COMBINING THE STATES FOLLOWING THE INITIAL TIME IN THE HISTORICAL YEARS. CAS - CONSTRUCTED ANALOG SOIL MOISTURE PREDICTION TECHNIQUE. CCA - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS - A TECHNIQUE WHICH PREDICTS THE STATUS OF U.S. T AND P FOR SOME FUTURE TARGET SEASON USING THE MOST RECENT 4 NON- OVERLAPPING SEASONAL OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL PACIFIC SST - CIRCULATION AND U.S. T OR P TO CHARACTERIZE THE RECENT BEHAVIOR OF THE CLIMATE - AND PAST OBSERVATIONS TO PLACE RECENT BEHAVIOR INTO A HISTORICAL CONTEXT. CFS - CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM - A FULLY-COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE FORECAST SYSTEM WHICH USES NO ADJUSTMENTS TO OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE FLUXES IN POST- PROCESSING (A ONE-TIER SYSTEM) DEVELOPED AT THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION. CLIMATOLOGY - THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE OF A VARIABLE - LIKE TEMPERATURE - AT A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR. . . . . . . . . CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES DYNAMICAL MODEL - A PREDICTION METHOD WHICH USES EQUATIONS DESCRIBING THE PHYSICAL BEHAVIOR OF A SYSTEM AND A COMPREHENSIVE SET OF CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF THE VALUES OF THE VARIABLES DESCRIBING THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SYSTEM (INITIAL CONDITIONS) TO PREDICT THE VALUES OF THOSE VARIABLES A SHORT TIME-STEP IN THE FUTURE. THOSE VALUES ARE - IN TURN - USED AS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR A SUBSEQUENT PREDICTION - AND SO ON - UNTIL THE DESIRED FUTURE PREDICTION TIME IS REACHED. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. EC - EQUAL CHANCES - THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE DETERMINED AND THE EXPECTED LIKELIHOODS OF ABOVE - NORMAL AND BELOW DO NOT DIFFER FROM THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL ODDS OF 33 1/3% EACH. EC REPLACES CL. ECCA - ENSEMBLE CCA. A MULTI-VARIATE STATISTICAL FORECAST BASED ON THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE CFS MODEL FORECAST USING THE MOST RECENT FORECAST AS THE PREDICTOR. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE ENSO - ACRONYM FOR EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION GCM - GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL - A GENERIC TERM APPLIED TO GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS. ITCZ - INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - A LINE WHERE THE SOUTHEASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONVERGE - CHARACTERIZED BY ENHANCED CONVECTION. IT MAY BE IN EITHER THE NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE - AND OCCASIONALLY A DOUBLE ITCZ MAY BE SEEN IN BOTH HEMISPHERES NOT FAR FROM THE EQUATOR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A DISTURBANCE IN TROPICAL CONVECTION - PRECIPITATION - WIND AND PRESSURE. MJO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS ARE ENHANCED ONLY IN REGIONS WHERE SSTS ARE VERY WARM - E.G. INDIAN OCEAN AND WEST PACIFIC. THE PRESSURE AND WIND DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH MJO IS OBSERVED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST COMPLETELY AROUND THE GLOBAL TROPICS IN ABOUT 30 TO 60 DAYS. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN - WHICH MAY BE CONSIDERED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO. NOTE THAT THE STATUS OF THE AO/NAO AND OTHER SLOWLY VARYING CIRCULATION MODES - WHILE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION REGIMES OVER THE U.S. - ARE UNPREDICTABLE BEYOND A WEEK OR TWO AHEAD AT BEST BY CURRENT TECHNOLOGY AND ARE NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED IN OUR FORECAST PROCESS AS RELIABLE PREDICTORS. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OCN - OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS - A FORECAST BASED ON PERSISTING THE AVERAGE OF THE LAST 10 YEARS FOR TEMPERATURE AND THE LAST 15 YEARS FOR PRECIPITATION. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. QBO - QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION - AN OSCILLATION OF THE WIND IN THE LOWER STRATOSPHERE BETWEEN EASTERLY AND WESTERLY WHICH REVERSES ON A NEARLY- 2 YEAR TIME SCALE. QBO IS ONE OF THE MOST REGULAR OSCILLATIONS KNOWN. SMLR - SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION - A TECHNIQUE WHICH SELECTS THE BEST SET OF PREDICTORS - FITTING THEM TO THE OBSERVATIONS TO CREATE EQUATIONS WHICH CAN BE USED TO MAKE PREDICTIONS. SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS - PREDICTIONS BASED MAINLY ON LARGE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SETS. CCA - OCN - SMLR - CAS - CA ARE EXAMPLES OF THESE. TELECONNECTIONS - THESE GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS OVER A LARGE AREA - LIKE THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - FOR A GIVEN TIME OF THE YEAR. THE POINTS ON THE MAP USUALLY CONSIST OF A SET OF MORE OR LESS EVENLY SPACED LOCATIONS CALLED GRID POINTS. TREND - AT A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AVERAGE OF THE MOST RECENT 10 (15) YEARS OF OBSERVATIONS OF T (P) AND THE CLIMATOLOGY. WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL - AND THE FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/DISC.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) INFORMATION ON THE FORMULATION AND SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/FORECASTS.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON JULY 21 2005. 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE. $$