PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 30 2005

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2005

THE ORIGINAL PMD IN MID JUNE WAS AS FOLLOWS
                                                                               .
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR JULY 2005 IS BASED ON CCA - OCN - CFS AND CAS. SINCE AS 
OF THIS WRITING WE HAVE A PATTERN CHANGE - TROUGH WEST RIDGE EAST IS CHANGING 
TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TROUGH AT EACH COAST AND A RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE - 
THERE IS LITTLE SYNOPTIC REASONING OF PERSISTENCE THAT WOULD APPLY TO JULY AT 
TWO WEEK LEAD. 

COLD TEMPERATURES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO UTAH ARE DUE TO CFS AND CCA. THE 
AREAS WITH A PROBABILITY SHIFT TOWARDS WARM - ALASKA - WEST COAST - SOUTHWEST
AND FLORIDA - ARE BASED ON TREND AIDED BY CCA AND CAS.

INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPIATION ARE WEAK. SEVERAL TOOLS HAVE INDICATIONS MAINLY IN
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WHERE WE FAVORED CFS TO SHIFT PROBABILITIES TOWARDS WET. 
WE ALSO MAINTAINED INDICATIONS FOR A LATE START OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON 
WHICH WAS SHOWN ON SEASONAL FORECASTS ISSUED ONE MONTH AGO. I.E. A SHIFT TO 
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN AZ AND NM.

THE UPDATE AT THE END OF JUNE IS AS FOLLOWS 

WE MAINLY TAKE INTO ACCOUNT NWP INDICATIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. MOST
LONG LEAD TOOLS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT ALL. BELOW ARE THE CHANGES.

WE DELETED THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN FL. ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND NORMAL TO 
BELOW  SST APPEARS TO CANCEL THE LONG TERM TREND IN FL AT THE MOMENT.  
WE EXPANDED THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN 
GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT ALSO WITH ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIP. 
INDICATIONS FOR A COLD START OF JULY FOR AK WERE IGNORED BECAUSE TRENDS 
HAVE BEEN SO DOMINANT.

WE ADDDED AN AREA OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIP IN THE SOUTHEAST TO COVER ALL AREAS 
SOUTH EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TO MOBILE
ALABAMA. WE EXPANDED THE AREA OF ABOVE MEDIAN IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD
TO INCLUDE MOST OF MONTANA NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA AND FROM THERES SOUTHWARD 
THROUGH PARTS OF NEBRASKA IOWA KANSAS AND INOT OKLAHOMA.
  
FORECASTER: H. VAN DEN DOOL 


NOTES -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).


THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR AUG... WILL BE RELEASED ON THU JULY 21 2005.  
  
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.


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