PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2005 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUN 2005 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2005. FOR APRIL 2005 - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 14.09 INCHES (97 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 10.03 INCHES (124 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 11.64 INCHES (113 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 41.28 INCHES (91 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOVE THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN JUNE 2005. CCA and THE NCEP cFS MODEL PREDICT A TENDENCY TOWARDS BELOW NORMORL FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 75.3 0.4 B40 4.4 5.2 9.1 KAHULUI A45 77.7 0.7 B40 0.1 0.1 0.2 HONOLULU A45 79.7 0.5 B40 0.1 0.2 0.3 LIHUE A45 77.8 0.4 B40 0.9 1.3 1.9 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUN-JUL-AUG 2005 TO JUN-JUL-AUG 2006 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING APRIL - ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DOWNWELLING PHASE OF A STRONG OCEANIC KELVIN WAVE. SST ANOMALIES INCREASED BY MORE THAN 2°C IN THE EXTREME EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING APRIL - AND BY THE END OF THE MONTH POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES OF GREATER THAN +0.5°C WERE OBSERVED IN MANY AREAS FROM INDONESIA EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. DURING THE MOST RECENT WEEK HOWEVER... POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES NEAR THE EQUATOR HAVE WEAKENED MARKEDLY... AND A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL DURING THE NORTHERN SUMMER (JUNE-AUGUST). THE SPREAD IN THE FORECASTS INDICATES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DURING THE LATTER PART OF 2005. CCA - OCN AND SMT INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM JJA 2005 TO ASO 2005. CCA CALLS SILGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HILO - KAHULUI AND HONOLULU FROM JJA 2005 to JAS 2005 AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR LIHUE FOR JJA 2005. THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER HAWAII DURING MARCH AND APRIL MADE A BIG SHIFT FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL TOTALS OF JANUARY AND FEBRUARY AND BROUGHT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR 2005 THROUGH THE END OF APRIL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL AT SOME LOCATIONS. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2005 A45 75.9 0.4 B40 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2005 A40 76.3 0.4 B35 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2005 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2005 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2005 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2005 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2006 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2006 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2006 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2006 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2006 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2006 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2005 A45 78.6 0.5 B40 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2005 A40 79.1 0.5 B35 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2005 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2005 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2005 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2005 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2006 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2006 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2006 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2006 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2006 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2005 A45 80.7 0.4 B40 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2005 A40 81.2 0.4 B35 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2005 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2005 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2005 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2006 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2006 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2006 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2006 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2006 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2005 A45 78.8 0.3 B35 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2005 A40 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2005 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2005 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2005 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2005 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2006 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2006 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2006 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JUNE 16 2005. $$