PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

30-DAY UPDATED OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2005
                                                                               .
THE UPDATE OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2005 IS BASED ON NCEPS GFS MODEL FOR
BOTH SHORT AND EXTENDED RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS TOGETHER WITH INDICATIONS FOR 
MEAN MONTHLY CLIMATIC ANOMALIES FROM THE CFS MODEL... SOIL MOISTURE... LOCAL 
SST ANOMALIES... AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.  SSTS IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL 
PACIFIC ARE WITHIN .5 C OF NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON 
CLIMATE ANOMALIES OVER THE U.S. IN JUNE.  SSTS IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE EASTERN 
U.S. COAST ARE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL AND MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES IN 
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS IN JUNE.  SSTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WARMED 
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE MID-MAY AND ARE NOW ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHT MUCH OF THE 
GULF... PROMPTING A REVISION IN THE JUNE OUTLOOK IN NEARBY AREAS.

THE GFS MODEL PREDICTIONS FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JUNE INDICATE A 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE EAST. 
THIS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE GFS PREDICTS TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE 
ABOVE NORMAL IN EARLY JUNE OVER MUCH OF ALASKA.  RECENT RUNS OF THE CFS MODEL 
ARE SIMILAR TO RUNS MADE EARLIER IN MAY AND INDICATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA.  THE CAS SOIL 
MOISTURE TOOL ALSO SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN U.S... 
THUS THE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN REVISED TO INCLUDE AN AREA OF ENHANCED CHANCES FOR 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE WEST.  THE AREA OF ENHANCED CHANCES 
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO TRENDS IN THE SOUTHWEST WAS DIMINISHED 
ACCORDINGLY.  THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED IN THE ORIGINAL OUTLOOK 
FOR JUNE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS BEEN ELIMINATED DUE TO INDICATIONS FOR 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE.  ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN ALASKA DUE TO WARM SSTS... SHORT TERM WEATHER 
FORECASTS FROM THE GFS... AND CFS MODEL INDICATIONS.   SSTS IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAVE INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE MID-MAY AND ARE NOW ABOVE NORMAL... SO 
THE AREA OF ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 
U.S. INDICATED ON THE ORIGINAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE HAVE BEEN REDUCED SUBSTANTIALLY.  
SSTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SO
INCREASE CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 
U.S. ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.  

BOTH THE RECENT CFS MODEL RUNS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS FROM THE GFS INDICATE 
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... NORTHERN PLAINS... AND 
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.  THE CFS CONTINUES TO PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR FLORIDA... HOWEVER THE RECENT SHIFT TOWARD WARMER 
THAN NORMAL SSTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULTED IN A REVISION OF THE OUTLOOK 
ISSUED IN MID-MAY FROM A FAVORED CATEGORY OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION TO 
EQUAL CHANCES.   
  
FORECASTER: D. UNGER 


NOTES -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JULY... WILL BE RELEASED ON THU JUNE 16 2005.  
  
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.


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