PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU APR 21 2005 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2005 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 2005. FOR MARCH 2005 - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 12.68 INCHES (110 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 9.39 INCHES (134 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 11.34 INCHES (113 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 34.18 INCHES (104 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN MAY 2005. THESE TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATIONS IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 73.8 0.6 EC 5.9 7.4 8.1 KAHULUI A40 75.7 0.7 EC 0.2 0.5 0.6 HONOLULU A40 77.6 0.4 EC 0.2 0.4 0.8 LIHUE A40 75.7 0.6 EC 1.2 1.7 2.6 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY-JUN-JUL 2005 TO MAY-JUN-JUL 2006 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SST ANOMALIES INCREASED IN THE NIŅO 3.4 AND NIŅO 3 REGIONS DURING MARCH 2005 - WHILE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES PERSISTED IN THE NIŅO 4 REGION. THE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION - OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC IN FEBRUARY - WEAKENED AND DRIER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER THAT REGION. THE INCREASE IN SST ANOMALIES AND UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING THE LAST HALF OF MARCH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD-PROPAGATING OCEANIC KELVIN WAVE. THIS WAVE IS STRONGER THAN THOSE THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN RECENT MONTHS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MJO ACTIVITY. SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA DURING APRIL. HOWEVER - SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IN THE UPPER OCEAN HAS OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF THIS KELVIN WAVE, ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING OF THE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING MARCH. THIS COOLING IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD - EVENTUALLY REACHING THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING MAY. A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT A TRANSITION FROM WEAK WARM-EPISODE (EL NIŅO) CONDITIONS TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS, AND THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DURING THE NORTHERN SUMMER. CCA - OCN AND SMT INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM MJJ 2005 TO JJA 2005. CCA - OCN - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL GIVE NO INDICATIONS IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW FOR PRECIPITATION. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2005 A40 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2005 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2005 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2005 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2005 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2005 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2005 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2006 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2006 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2006 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2006 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2006 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2006 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2005 A40 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2005 A40 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2005 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2005 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2005 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2005 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2005 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2006 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2006 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2006 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2006 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2005 A40 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2005 A40 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2005 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2005 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2005 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2005 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2006 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2006 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2006 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2006 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MJJ 2005 A40 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2005 A40 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2005 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2005 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2005 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2005 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2005 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2006 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2006 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY MAY 19 2005. $$