PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2005 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APR 2005 . . . . . . . . SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO to ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2005. FOR FEBRUARY 2005 - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 11.57 INCHES (146 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 7.51 INCHES (147 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHALUI AIRPORT 6.97 INCHES (114 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 19.08 INCHES (103 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN APRIL 2005. CFS AND CCA INDICATE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR APRIL 2005. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 72.6 0.5 B40 7.6 10.3 11.0 KAHULUI A40 74.3 0.6 B40 0.5 1.0 1.3 HONOLULU A40 76.0 0.5 B40 0.5 0.7 1.0 LIHUE A40 74.1 0.5 B40 1.6 2.7 3.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APR-MAY-JUN 2005 TO APR-MAY-JUN 2006 . . . . . . . . REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SST ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN ALL OF THE NIŅO REGIONS. HOWEVER - POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +1°C HAVE PERSISTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE PATTERN OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC IN RECENT MONTHS AND THE MOST RECENT 5-MONTH RUNNING MEAN VALUE OF THE SOI (-0.5) INDICATE THAT A WEAK WARM EPISODE IS IN PROGRESS. HOWEVER - THE RECENT DECREASE IN SST ANOMALIES THROUGHOUT THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SUGGESTS THAT A RETURN TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS TAKING PLACE. BASED ON THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF SST ANOMALIES AND ON A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS - IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT WEAK WARM EPISODE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS AND THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NORTHERN SUMMER. CCA - OCN AND SMT INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FOR AMJ 2005. CCA - OCN AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR AMJ 2005. ALTHOUGH A TRANSITION FROM WEAK WARMEPISODE CONDITIONS TO ENSO- NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. HAWAIIAN IMPACTS ARE STRONGER THE YEAR AFTER A MATURE ENSO EVENT RATHER THAN THE YEAR OF THE EVENT - EVEN IF THE OPPOSITE PHASE OF ENSO HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALSO REFLECTS WEAK EL NINO COMPOSITES. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2005 A40 73.9 0.4 B40 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2005 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2005 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2005 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2005 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2005 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2006 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2006 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2006 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2006 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2006 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2005 A40 75.8 0.6 B40 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2005 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2005 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2005 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2005 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2005 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2005 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2005 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2006 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2006 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2006 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2005 A40 77.7 0.4 B40 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2005 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2005 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2005 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2005 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2005 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2005 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2006 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2006 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2006 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2005 A40 75.9 0.4 B40 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2005 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2005 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2005 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2005 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2005 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2005 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2005 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2006 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2006 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE . . . . . . . . NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATUREOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY APR 21 2005. $$