PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU FEB 17 2005 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR 2005 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2005. FOR JANUARY 2004 - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 5.74 INCHES (125 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 6.23 INCHES (231 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - Kahului AIRPORT 4.94 INCHES (134 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 3.89 INCHES (40 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN AND SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN MARCH 2005. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT MARCH PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FROM ANY TOOL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 72.1 0.6 EC 5.7 12.1 15.4 KAHULUI A40 73.2 0.6 EC 1.4 2.0 2.9 HONOLULU A40 74.5 0.5 EC 0.7 1.2 2.5 LIHUE A40 72.9 0.5 EC 1.5 2.5 3.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR-APR-MAY 2005 TO MAR-APR-MAY 2006 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES DECREASED IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE DATE LINE. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +1C (~1.8F) PERSISTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THROUGH DECEMBER THERE WAS A LACK OF PERSISTENT ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATERS OF THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - WHICH LIMITED EL NINO-RELATED IMPACTS. BASED ON THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND ON A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS - IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT WEAK WARM EPISODE (EL NINO) CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS AND THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LAST HALF OF 2005. CCA - OCN AND SMT INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM MAM 2005 TO AMJ 2005. CCA - OCN AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MAM 2005. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLLOK ALSO REFLECTS WEAK EL NINO COMPOSITES. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2005 A40 72.8 0.5 B40 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2005 A40 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2005 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2005 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2005 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2005 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2005 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2006 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2006 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2006 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2006 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2005 A40 74.4 0.6 B40 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2005 A40 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2005 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2005 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2005 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2005 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2005 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2005 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2005 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2006 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2006 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2005 A40 76.0 0.4 B40 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2005 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2005 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2005 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2005 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2005 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2005 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2005 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2006 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2006 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2005 A40 74.4 0.4 B40 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2005 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2005 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2005 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2005 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2005 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2005 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2005 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2005 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2006 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2006 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY MAR 17 2005. $$