PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST WED NOV 30 2004

UPDATE FOR 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2004
                                                                               .
SST ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE ABOUT 0.8 C ABOVE NORMAL 
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO DECEMBER. THIS AMOUNTS TO A VERY WEAK WARM EVENT. 

WE USED LAST MONTH'S NDJ SEASONAL FORECAST AS FIRST GUESS AND CONSULTED 
THE CFS, VARIOUS FORMS OF OCN, VARIOUS FORMS OF CCA, TREND ADJUSTED ENSO 
COMPOSITES AND THE CAS.

FROM THE 0.5 MONTH LEAD PMD WE QUOTE:

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN ONE THIRD OF THE LOWER 48 AND INTO SE ALASKA. THIS WARMTH IS INDICATED
BY MANY TOOLS. IN MINNESOTA AND SURROUNDING AREAS ENSO COMPOSITES AND THE CFS
AGREED ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE EC IS PREDICTED BECAUSE OF EITHER 
CONTRADICTIONS AMONG TOOLS OR ONLY A SINGLE TOOL PRODUCING A SIGNAL. 

MANY TOOLS INDICATE ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN TEXAS AND AJACENT 
AREAS. AN ENSO RELATED BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AREA IS SHOWN IN OHIO AND
WESTERN PA. ELSEWHERE THERE ARE NO RELIABLE INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION.    

END QUOTE

UPDATE NOV 30:
SHORT TERM AND MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE AT ODDS IN SEVERAL PLACES WITH THE
0.5 MONTH LEAD MONTHLY FORECAST ISSUED NOV 18. 
SPECIFICALLY THE WARMTH IN THE WEST SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN A COLD START 
TO THE MONTH AND THE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN OHIO MAY SOON BECOME 
INVALID WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
CONSEQUENTLY WE REDUCED THE WARMTH IN THE WEST TO INCLUDE ONLY NEVADA PLUS 
PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES. WE REMOVED THE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM 
OHIO AND SURROUNDING STATES AND EXTENDED THE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION 
FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 
SINCE IT IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR WE ARE IN A PATTERN WE COULD 
EXTRAPOLATE FOR THE MONTH AS A WHOLE THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES ARE SMALL. 

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO ALASKA. THE COLD IN MINNESOTA MAY VERIFIY IN THE FIRST WEEK. 

FORECASTER: H. VAN DEN DOOL

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE 
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).  
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY DEC 16 2004.
  
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.


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