PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2004 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV 2004 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ONE AND HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER. FOR 2004 THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 27.81 INCHES (107 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 23.93 INCHES (218 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 24.71 INCHES (196 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 101.33 INCHES (112 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN NOVEMBER 2004. CCA AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATIONFOR FOR HILO. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 74.2 0.4 B40 8.8 12.9 15.8 KAHULUI A40 76.1 0.6 EC 1.0 2.0 2.3 HONOLULU A40 77.4 0.7 EC 0.6 1.0 1.5 LIHUE A40 75.8 0.5 EC 2.3 2.9 3.8 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV-DEC-JAN 2004 TO NOV-DEC-JAN 2005 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5C PERSISTED IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - AND EXPANDED EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING SEPTEMBER 2004. THE INCREASE AND EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE AREA OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING JULY-SEPTEMBER INDICATE THE EARLY STAGES OF A WARM EPISODE. THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER CONDITIONS WERE NOT YET INDICATIVE OF A BASIN-WIDE EL NINO - PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF BELOW-AVERAGE SSTS IN THE FAR EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 95W AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. BASED ON THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND ON A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS - IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT SST ANOMALIES IN THE NInO 3.4 REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIVE - AT OR ABOVE +0.5C, THROUGH EARLY 2005. CCA - OCN - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM NDJ 2004 TO JFM 2005. CCA - OCN AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DJF AND JFM 2005. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2004 A40 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2005 A40 72.0 0.4 B40 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2005 EC 71.8 0.4 B40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2005 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2005 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2005 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2005 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2005 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2005 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2005 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2005 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2004 A40 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2005 A40 72.5 0.5 B40 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.5 B40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2005 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2005 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2005 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2005 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2005 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2005 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2005 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2005 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2005 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2004 A40 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2005 A40 73.5 0.4 B40 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 B40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2005 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2005 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2005 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2005 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2005 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2005 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2005 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2005 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2005 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2004 A40 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2005 A40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 B40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2005 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2005 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2005 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2005 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2005 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2005 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2005 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2005 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY NOV 18 2004 $$