PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCT 2004 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ONE DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER. FOR 2004 THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST- RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 25.08 INCHES (108 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 22.92 INCHES (223 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 24.69 INCHES (202 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 95.64 INCHES (117 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN OCTOBER 2004. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT OCTOBER PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FROM ANY TOOL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 75.8 0.5 EC 8.1 9.6 10.5 KAHULUI A45 78.3 0.5 EC 0.4 0.6 1.0 HONOLULU A45 80.0 0.5 EC 0.3 1.4 1.9 LIHUE A45 78.1 0.4 EC 2.0 3.2 4.3 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCT-NOV-DEC 2004 TO OCT-NOV-DEC 2005 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5C PERSISTED IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING AUGUST 2004. BY EARLY SEPTEMBER, POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5C WERE FOUND BETWEEN 160E AND 120W - WITH ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +1C EXTENDING FROM 170E EASTWARD TO 140W. THE INCREASE AND EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE AREA OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING JULY-AUGUST INDICATE THE EARLY STAGES OF A WARM (EL NINO) EPISODE. BASED ON THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND ON A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS - IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT SST ANOMALIES IN THE NIŅO 3.4 REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIVE - AT OR ABOVE +0.5C, THROUGH EARLY 2005. CCA - OCN - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM OND 2004 TO JFM 2005. CCA - OCN AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DJF AND JFM 2005. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2004 A40 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2004 A40 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2005 A40 72.0 0.4 B40 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2005 A40 71.8 0.4 B40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2005 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2005 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2005 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2005 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2005 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2005 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2005 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2004 A40 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2004 A40 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2005 A40 72.5 0.5 B40 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2005 A40 72.4 0.5 B40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2005 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2005 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2005 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2005 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2005 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2005 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2005 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2005 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2004 A40 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2004 A40 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2005 A40 73.5 0.4 B40 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2005 A40 73.5 0.4 B40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2005 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2005 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2005 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2005 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2005 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2005 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2005 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2005 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2005 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2004 A40 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2004 A40 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2005 A40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2005 A40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2005 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2005 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2005 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2005 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2005 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2005 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2005 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY OCT 21 2004 $$