PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2004 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEP 2004 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER. FOR 2004 THROUGH THE END OF JULY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 21.56 INCHES (101 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 19.18 INCHES (196 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 24.33 INCHES (208 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 88.81 INCHES (124 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN SEPTEMBER 2004. OCN PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HONOLULU AND LIHUE IN SEPTEMBER 2004. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 76.4 0.5 EC 5.4 8.7 9.9 KAHULUI A45 79.2 0.6 EC 0.1 0.2 0.3 HONOLULU A45 81.4 0.5 B40 0.4 0.5 0.9 LIHUE A45 79.4 0.3 B40 1.4 1.8 2.0 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEP-OCT-NOV 2004 TO SEP-OCT-NOV 2005 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - WHILE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5C PERSISTED IN THE NINO 4 REGION. SST ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5C WERE FOUND BETWEEN 160E AND 120W - WITH ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +1C EXTENDING FROM 180W EASTWARD TO 125W. IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIVE - AT OR ABOVE +0.5C - THROUGH THE END OF 2004. APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC (NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES BETWEEN -0.5C AND +0.5C) THROUGH THE END OF 2004. THE REMAINING FORECASTS INDICATE EL NINO CONDITIONS (NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO +0.5C) WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 3-6 MONTHS. CCA - OCN - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM SON 2004 TO DJF 2005. CCA - OCN AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DJF 2005. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2004 A40 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2004 A40 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2004 A40 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2005 A40 72.0 0.4 B40 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2005 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2005 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2005 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2005 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2005 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2005 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2005 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2004 A40 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2004 A40 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2004 A40 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2005 A40 72.5 0.5 B40 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2005 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2005 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2005 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2005 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2005 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2005 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2005 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2004 A40 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2004 A40 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2004 A40 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2005 A40 73.5 0.4 B40 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2005 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2005 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2005 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2005 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2005 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2005 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2005 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2005 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2004 A40 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2004 A40 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2004 A40 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2005 A40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2005 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2005 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2005 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2005 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2005 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2005 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY OCT 21 2004 $$