PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2004 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUG 2004 . SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AT MOST HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS IN AUGUST. CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN AUGUST 2004. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT AUGUST PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FROM ANY TOOL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 76.5 0.4 EC 7.0 8.4 9.4 KAHULUI A45 79.6 0.5 EC 0.3 0.5 0.6 HONOLULU A50 81.6 0.5 EC 0.1 0.2 0.3 LIHUE A45 79.6 0.4 EC 1.3 1.6 2.0 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL-AUG-SEP 2004 TO JUL-AUG-SEP 2005 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1 DEGREE C FROM ABOUT 170E TO 150W. SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM AROUND 130W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AVERAGE AROUND .5 DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL. THE CURRENT SSTS ARE INFLUENCED BY STRONG INTRASEASONAL (MJO) ACTIVITY AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. MOST NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT SSTS IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION WILL AVERAGE AROUND .5 DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LOWER THRESHOLD FOR EL-NINO IMPACTS. THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS THAT SST ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVE SMALL AND ANY ENSO IMPACT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM SSTS WILL BE WEAK. THUS THE SERIES OF OUTLOOKS REFLECT THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMIC TOOLS... EXCEPT FOR IN ASO WHERE WARM SSTS CURRENTLY SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND DYNAMIC MODEL PREDICTIONS ENHANCE THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CCA - OCN - SMLR AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SON AT HILO AND THROUGH MOST OF THE COOL SEASON AT THE OTHER HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS. OCN AND SMLR INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT HONOLULU THROUGHT ALL LEAD TIMES. CCA INDICATES AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ASO 2004. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2004 A40 76.2 0.4 A40 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2004 A40 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2004 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2004 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2005 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2005 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2005 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2005 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2005 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2005 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2005 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2004 A45 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2004 A40 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2004 A35 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2004 A35 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2005 A40 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2005 A35 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2005 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2005 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2005 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2005 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2005 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2005 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2004 A50 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2004 A45 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2004 A45 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2004 A40 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2005 A40 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2005 A40 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2005 A35 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2005 A35 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2005 A35 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2005 A40 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2005 A40 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2005 A40 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2005 A35 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2004 A45 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2004 A40 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2004 A40 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2004 A40 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2005 A40 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2005 A40 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2005 A40 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2005 A35 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2005 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2005 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2005 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2005 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 FORECASTER: DAVID UNGER NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY AUGUST 19 2004 $$