PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT SAT JULY 31 2004

30-DAY UPDATED OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUGUST 2004
                                                                               .
THE SSTS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR THE DATE LINE HAVE DRIFTED UPWARD AND ARE 
NOW OVER 1 DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 125W TO JUST WEST OF 
THE DATELINE.  EQUATORIAL SSTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 
BELOW NORMAL FROM THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO ABOUT 120 W. TROPICAL 
INTRASEASONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAN IN EARLY JULY.  WITH A 
MIXTURE OF WARMER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL SSTS IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND 
WEAKENING INTRASEASONAL ACTIVITY... THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNALS FROM THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC INFLUENCING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CONUS AND 
ALASKA.  ENSO INFLUENCE ON U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE WEAK 
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IN ANY CASE... SO THIS UPDATE WILL BE BASED MOSTLY ON THE 
LIKELY IMPACT OF WEATHER INDICATED ON SHORT TERM FORECASTS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN 
DAYS OF THE MONTH AND THE CIRCULATION PATTERNS AS PREDICTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MODEL FROM AUGUST 8 TO 14.  THIS SHORT TERM WEATHER INFORMATION IS COMBINED 
WITH INDICATIONS FOR CLIMATIC ANOMALIES FROM LONG TERM TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE 
AND PRECIPITATION... SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... AND PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES IN 
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO OBTAIN THE 30 
DAY OUTLOOK. 

SHORT TERM FORECASTS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL 
HIGH PLAINS... RAISING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE MEDIAN TEMPERATURES THERE.  
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND 
IN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BOOST THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION IN AUGUST FOR THOSE AREAS.  BOTH THOSE AREAS SHOW HINTS OF WET 
CONDITIONS FROM TOOLS FOR 30 AND 90 DAY CLIMATE ANOMALIES.  ANALOG YEARS TO 
THE CIRCULATION PATTERNS PREDICTED FROM THE 8 TO 14 DAY GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL 
FORECASTS WERE USED TO FORM MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION COMPOSITES 
FOR AUGUST. THE COMPOSITE SUGGESTS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF 
THE WEST... ENHANCING THE SIGNAL FROM LONG TERM TRENDS THERE. THE COMPOSITE 
SHOWS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST.  THE PRECIPITATION COMPOSITE 
INDICATES DRY CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE WEST... AND THIS INFORMATION WAS USED 
TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE REGION OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PREDICTED FOR THE 
UPPER GREAT BASIN.  THE PRECIPITATION COMPOSITE SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND IN TEXAS... RAISING THE CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION SUGGESTED BY SHORT TERM FORECASTS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND 
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN TEXAS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE.  WARMER THAN NORMAL SSTS 
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES IN ADJACENT COASTAL REGIONS.    


FORECASTER: D. UNGER 

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY AUGUST 19 2004.
  
NORMALS ARE BASED ON THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.

$$