PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL 2004 . SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JULY. DRY CONDITIONS WERE RELIEVED DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER HAWAII. FOR 2004 THROUGH THE END OF MAY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 17.30 INCHES (99 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 18.78 INCHES (211 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 24.24 INCHES (220 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 78.09 INCHES (146 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN JULY 2004. CCA PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HILO - HONOLULU - KAHULUI AND LIHUE WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE OCN TOOL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 76.0 0.5 A40 6.5 9.4 11.2 KAHULUI A45 78.9 0.6 A40 0.2 0.3 0.5 HONOLULU A45 80.8 0.5 A40 0.2 0.4 0.4 LIHUE A45 78.9 0.4 A40 1.3 1.8 2.2 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL-AUG-SEP 2004 TO JUL-AUG-SEP 2005 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING MAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN LARGEST IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC - RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED EAST-WEST GRADIENT OF SST THAT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A STEEPER-THAN-AVERAGE THERMOCLINE SLOPE IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - WITH POSITIVE (NEGATIVE) SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES IN THE WESTERN (EASTERN) PORTION OF THE BASIN. SLIGHTLY MORE THAN HALF OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC (NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES BETWEEN -0.5C AND +0.5C) THROUGH THE NORTHERN SUMMER AND FALL 2004. THE REMAINING FORECASTS INDICATE THAT EL NInO CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 3-6 MONTHS. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS (THROUGH AUGUST 2004). THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER AUGUST 2004. CCA - OCN - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FOR JAS 2004. CCA AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JAS 2004. . . . . . . . . HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2004 A40 76.3 0.4 A40 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2004 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2004 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2004 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2004 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2005 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2005 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2005 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2005 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2005 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2005 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2004 A40 79.1 0.5 A40 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2004 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2004 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2004 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2004 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2005 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2005 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2005 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2005 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2005 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2005 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2004 A40 81.2 0.4 A40 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2004 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2004 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2004 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7 DJF 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2005 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2005 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2005 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2005 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2005 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2005 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2004 A40 79.3 0.3 A40 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2004 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2004 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2004 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2004 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2005 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2005 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2005 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2005 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JULY 15 2004 $$