PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EDT THU JUNE 17 2004

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2004
                                                                               .
SST ANOMALIES CURRENTLY AVERAGE WITHIN 0.5 DEGREE C OF NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN...WITH SOME LARGER NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES EAST OF THE 120W. THE VARIOUS STATISTICAL AND NUMERICAL MODELS FOR
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE MOSTLY PREDICTING THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE ENSO-NEUTRAL RANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT THE ENSO STATE WILL BE BY LATER IN THE YEAR. THE
CONSENSUS OPINION IS THAT SST ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN ON THE POSITIVE SIDE BUT
WITHIN THE NEUTRAL ENSO RANGE IN JULY. NO IMPACTS OF ENSO ON THE U.S. CLIMATE
ARE EXPECTED DURING JULY.

WITH LITTLE FORCING FROM EQUATORIAL SSTS DUE TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS...
THIS MONTHS NUMERICAL CLIMATE PREDICTION MODELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
HIGH RELIABILITY. THEREFORE THE ANOMALY PATTERNS PREDICTED BY THE MODELS
ARE REFLECTED ONLY WHERE THERE IS SUPPORT FROM OTHER TOOLS. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR JULY IS BASED ON LONG-TERM TRENDS AS REFLECTED IN THE OCN TOOL...
THE CCA TOOLS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVED SEASONAL MEAN PATTERNS OF ATMOSPHERIC
AND SURFACE PARAMETERS...AND CAS CONSTRUCTED ANALOG SOIL MOISTURE TOOL BASED
ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF TEMPERATURE WERE
USED ALONG THE SOUTH CALIFORNIA COAST AND IN MIAMI TO GAUGE WHETHER LONG TERM
EFFECTS ARE IN PLACE.

THERE IS A WHOLE HOST OF TOOLS THAT ARGUE FOR THE USUAL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN THIS INSTANCE THAT INCLUDES
EVEN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BECAUSE COASTAL SSTA HAS NOT BEEN BELOW NORMAL LATELY.
THERE ARE WEAK INDICATIONS FROM MULTIPLE TOOLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
FROM EAST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANTECEDENT WET SOIL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN.
INDICATIONS FOR ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA WERE OVERRULED BY CONFLICTS
WITH OTHER TOOLS AND A LACK OF WARMTH IN RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEAK FOR MONTHLY FORECASTS. IN THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES OPTED FOR BELOW MEDIAN BASED ON SMT CCA OCN AND CAS.
INDICATIONS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION EXIST FOR OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...
AND TEXAS AS WELL AS WISCONSIN...BUT ONLY ONE TOOL SO WE KEPT EC.

ALASKA HAS STRONG INDICATIONS IN THE SMT FOR WARMTH ALONG SOUTHERN ONE THIRD
OF THE STATE BUT NOT MANY TOOLS ARE SUPPORTIVE. ONLY WEAK PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
ARE SHOWN.

FORECASTER: H. VAN DEN DOOL

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE -  AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY JULY 15 2004.
  
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE
WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.


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